2020 Kentucky Derby Odds, Predictions and Preview

In any other year, the Kentucky Derby would have been run on the first Saturday in May, but 2020 is not like any other year. The 146th running of the Derby will be run from Churchill Downs on Saturday, September 5th. The purse is $3 million for the 1 ¼-mile race on the dirt track at Churchill Downs. The overwhelming favorite to win the Run for the Roses is Tiz The Law, who will have Manny Franco in the silks and is trained by Barclay Tagg.

Covid-19 played havoc with a traditional calendar for the Triple Crown, moving the Belmont Stakes from the last race of the three to the first and putting the Kentucky Derby in the middle of the three and run on Labor Day weekend followed by the last leg, the Preakness on October 3. Officials at Churchill Downs are allowing up to 23,000 guests, but no general admission and the infield will not be open. The 23,000 amounts to only about 13.5% of the record crowd at the 2015 Kentucky Derby of 170,513.

The race is just three Saturdays away and it will be close to two months since the Belmont Stakes was won by Tiz The Law. Last weekend, the 3-year old ran a tuneup for the Derby at the Travers Stakes and won by 5 ½ lengths with a career-best 109 Beyer speed figure. As of Sunday, August 16th, Tiz the Law was 6/5 favorite to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

One thoroughbred expected to give Tiz The Law a run for his money is Art Collector. The three-year-old has won both the Bluegrass Stakes and the Ellis Park Derby of late and looks to spoil the Triple Crown bit of Tiz The Law on September 5th. Art Collector, who is trained by Thomas Drury Jr., has won five straight starts, with that string beginning in November of last year and is currently listed with the second-best overall odds at 9/2.

Authentic is expected to be in the mix coming down the homestretch at Churchill Downs in the Run for the Roses. The three-year-old was victorious in the San Felipe Stakes this past March for his third consecutive victory prior to finishing runner-up at the Santa Anita Derby to Honor A.P. in June. Authentic bounced back in July to win the Haskell Stakes but will take on extra distance at the 1 ¼ -mile circuit around Churchill Downs.

One long shot who may take part in the Run for the Roses is Caracaro, who is currently 33/1. The son of Uncle Mo, who was once considered a serious contender for the 2011 Kentucky Derby, is also a half-brother to Nyquist who was the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2016. Caracaro is trained by the Venezuelan Gustavo Delgado, who won Venezuela's version of the Triple Crown three times. Caracaro was second to Tiz The Law in the Travers Stakes.

Besides the aforementioned Tiz The Law, Authentic, Art Collector, Honor A.P. and Caracaro, the other thoroughbreds expected to race on September 5th at Churchill Downs in the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby could include Pneumatic, Ny Traffic, King Guillermo, Thousand Words, Dr Post, Max Player, Free Grammar, Enforceable, Swiss skydiver, Shivaree, Rushie Major Fed, Storm The Court, Attachment Rate, Anneau d’Or and Sole Volante.

The final field of up to 20 thoroughbreds has not yet been determined. The top 25 were listed following the final prep race on Saturday at Monmouth Park, which was by Pneumatic, who has moved up to the No. 11 spot in the list, but is expected to race in the Preakness on October 3 with only a slight possibility of racing at Churchill Downs on September 5.

Many horse racing experts believe Tiz The Law will win by a wide margin at the Kentucky Derby with all the other entries racing for runner-up. The three-year-old posted a 115 Brisnet Speed rating on August 8 at the Travers. That is the highest Brisnet Speed figure since the points-based system now used for the Kentucky Derby was introduced for the 2013 Run for the Roses. The 115 by Tiz Law surpassed the 114 posted by Justify in 2018 at the Santa Anita Derby.

These are the top 22 in points following the last prep race for the Kentucky Derby but only 20 can qualify.

As of August 17, the top-10 odds to win the Run for the Roses are the following:

Tiz The Law 6/5

Art Collector 6/1

Authentic 8/1

Honor A.P. 8/1

Uncle Chuck 16/1

Thousand Words 20/1

Ny Traffic 15/1

King Guillermo 25/1

Dr Post 25/1

Max Player 33/1

Of course, these odds will be adjusted as the race approaches and horses are either declared as in or out. The morning-line odds are made following the Post Position Draw that takes place on the Wednesday preceding the Derby and these odds are one of the most exciting parts of the wagering process for Kentucky Derby bettors.

Art Collector is the thoroughbred the others should be weary of. The Thomas Drury, Jr.-trained 3-year old has won each of his last five outings dating back to November of 2019 up to the Runhappy Ellis Park Derby on August 9. Honor A.P., trained by John A. Shirreffs has reached the winner’s circle once and was runner up twice in his last three outings. Tiz The Law, trained by Barclay Tagg, was victorious in this year’s first leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont and followed that up with a victory on August 8 in the Runhappy Travers Stakes. Tiz The Law has four consecutive victories and five visits to the winner’s circles in his last six outings dating back to October of 2019 with a third at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on November 30, 2019 as the only blemish.

Win: Art Collector, Place: Tiz The Law, Show: Honor A.P.