2023 AFC West Predictions and Over/ Under NFL betting odds

Last season, the AFC West was expected to be the toughest division in the NFL, due to the fact that three of the four teams finished the previous season with a winning record, and the Denver Broncos pulled off a blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson.

Wilson and the Broncos failed to live up to the high expectations, and the Las Vegas Raiders, who made the playoffs the previous season, didn’t come close to making the postseason under new head coach Josh McDaniels.

With the Kansas City Chiefs winning their second Super Bowl in five seasons, the Los Angeles Chargers winning 10 games last season, and the Denver Broncos signing Super Bowl winner Sean Payton as their head coach, expect to see a very competitive AFC West this season. Check out the team previews and over/predictions for the AFC West below.

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Las Vegas Raiders: UNDER 6.5 WINS (-135)

The Raiders ended their five-year playoff drought in the 2021-22 season after winning 10 games, but they failed to improve on that campaign and finished the 2022-23 season with a 6-11 record, which was third in the division.

During the offseason, they parted ways with veteran quarterback Derek Carr and signed former San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to take over as their signal caller. Josh Jacobs, who led the

league in rushing last season is looking for a new contract and hasn’t been with the team in training camp, putting his status for the season in limbo.

They struggled defensively last season, so it wasn’t surprising that they tried to address their defensive issues through the draft, using three of their first five picks on defensive players, which they hope will make them competitive in the division this season.

The oddsmakers weren’t impressed with the Raiders’ offseason moves and currently have their win total for the season at 6.5. The bottom line for the Raiders is that they didn’t improve at the quarterback position, they have a disgruntled running back, and their head coach hasn’t won more than eight games in a season. They also play in a division with three teams having a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, so don’t expect them to win more than six games this season.

Denver Broncos: OVER 8.5 WINS (-105)

The Broncos finished the 2022-23 season with a 5-12 record, which was the worst in the conference.

Their big offseason acquisition, Russell Wilson, who was expected to be the piece that would end their playoff drought, didn’t look comfortable under center last season and had one if the worst seasons as a pro, with the team finishing the season with fewer wins than they had the previous season.

During the offseason, the Broncos fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett and hired former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton, who guided the franchise to their only Super Bowl win. They are hoping he can help them resurrect the career of Wilson like he did with fellow undersized quarterback Drew Brees, who became one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history under Payton’s leadership.

The Broncos addressed their offensive line issues with the signing of two of the best free agent linemen in tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers. They have a lot of depth at the receiver position with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, with both having over 800 yards in what was the worst-scoring offense in the league. They also drafted former Oklahoma receiver Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round of the draft and expect him to contribute this season. But, they are thin at the running back position with Javonte Williams coming off a season-ending knee injury. They signed Samaje Perine to back him up, but don’t be surprised if they add another running back before the season starts.

Defensively, the Broncos played well last season, but their offensive struggles kept the unit on the field a lot. If Payton can get the offense back on track, the Broncos will make some noise in the AFC this season.

Denver is expected to improve this season, with oddsmakers putting their total to win more than 8.5 games at -115 odds and to win less than 8.5 games at -105. Even though I expect them to be better than they were last season, they’re not going to be as good as the Chiefs or Chargers, but they will be good enough to win nine games.

Los Angeles Chargers: OVER 9.5 WINS (-115)

The Chargers finished the 2022-23 season with a 10-7 record, but they were eliminated by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were just as good as expected offensively, but the defense didn’t live up to the preseason hype, and they weren’t able to overcome all the injuries they dealt with.

This offseason, the Chargers didn’t make a splash, but they brought in veterans like linebacker Eric Kendricks and used their first-round pick on receiver Quentin Johnston, who is expected to have an impact on their offense this season.

If they play like they did last season, the Chargers won’t have trouble with keeping up with most teams offensively, and if their defensive stars can stay healthy this season, they might give the Chiefs a run for the AFC West title.

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Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 11.5 WINS (-135)

The Kansas City Chiefs finished the 2022-23 season with a 14-3 record, winning the AFC West for the seventh consecutive season and picking up their second Super Bowl win in five years.

The Chiefs come into the season with most of their offensive core intact, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. Seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco emerged as a legitimate RB1 last season after finishing with 830 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last season. They lost wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster in the offseason, but they are high on second-round draft pick Rashee Rice and don’t expect to miss much of a beat offensively.

On defense, they released Frank Clark, who had a big contract and finished with only five sacks last season. They are hoping first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah will be more productive than he was.

Division Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (-180)

Kansas City’s win total is currently at 11.5 at -110 odds to go over and -110 odds to finish under. Considering the fact that they have at least 12 wins in five straight seasons and no other teams in the AFC West have done enough to be considered legitimate threats to them, the Chiefs will not only pick up more than 11.5 wins this season but also win the AFC West.

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