2023 NFC South Predictions and Over/Under Betting Odds
The NFC South was the only division to not have a team with a winning record last year. Every division sends their winner to the playoffs, so the Buccaneers and their 8-9 record advanced to the Wildcard Round and were promptly sent home by Dallas. There are plenty of new faces in this division, as each team is looking to improve from last year. Which teams will be able to get back to their winning ways and have a record over .500? Read below to see my predictions for the NFC South.
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New Orleans Saints: Over 9.5 wins (+105)
The Saints refuse to rebuild, acquiring Derek Carr is another move the franchise has made in an attempt to win now as opposed to building for the future. Carr has been underrated during his career; he completes 65% of his passes and averages 250 passing yards a game. Tyrann Mathieu, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore and Cam Jordan lead an experienced and talented defense. Michael Thomas is set to return to join Chris Olave in the receiver room, and Alvin Kamara has been a playmaker for the Saints for years. The Saints have a strong defense, playmakers and they found the right signal caller to lead their team. Take the over.
Atlanta Falcons: Under 8.5 wins (+100)
The Falcons picked up a great running back in the draft with Bijan Robinson, but the Falcons were already third in the NFL in rushing last season. Robinson is an excellent prospect and will start immediately, but improving their ground game should not have been their top concern. Atlanta also picked up Calais Campbell, but the defensive end will turn 37 in early September. They did not make enough changes to see a big leap. Time will tell if Desmond Ridder is an upgrade from Marcus Mariota, but the young QB has not proven much so far. Kyle Pitts has all-time talent at tight end, but the Falcons have not proved they know how to use him yet. There is not enough here to take the over.
Carolina Panthers: Over 7.5 wins (-120)
Carolina has completely rebuilt this roster. Bryce Young is the headline, and the bulk of pressure will fall on his shoulders, but the Panthers have done a great job adding skill players. Miles Sanders comes over from Philly to fill the gap left by Christian McCaffery. DJ Chark and Adam Thielen were added as outside threats, and rookie wideout Jonathan Mingo has big play potential. The Colts hired Frank Reich to turn things around; he had success in Indianapolis with less than stellar quarterback play and will help in Young’s growth. In a weak division, the new look Panthers will get to at least eight wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 6.5 wins (-140)
A team that can’t seem to decide whether to start Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is not a team that is slated for success. Elite receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can only be elite if their quarterback can get them the ball, which will be a problem for whoever starts. Starting Rachaad White at running back is not going to scare any defenses, as they will be able to put pressure on the quarterback and now allow time for the receivers to run their routes. The defense is average, but that won’t be enough to win games if the offense can’t score. Tampa will be the worst team in a bad division, take the under.
Division winner: Saints (+120
The Saints have a proven quarterback, a strong pass rush, and playmakers at the skill positions. That will be all they need to win the NFC South. Carr will be the best quarterback in the division unless Bryce Young comes out better than advertised. Cam Jordan is quietly making his way up the all-time sacks list, and Tyrann Mathieu can still make plays in the secondary. If Michael Thomas is back to full strength, this offense will be hard to stop with the emergence of Chris Olave and steady production of Alvin Kamara. The Saints are getting plus money on these odds, great value for the best team in the division. The Saints will take the NFC South.
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