2023 NFL Betting Predictions
by Mark Ruelle
It seems like the Super Bowl just ended and the Kansas City Chiefs were being crowned Super Bowl Champion for the third time in team history and the second under the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. Well, the Chiefs have their rings and the Eagles have their motivation, and the NFL is once again set to kick off in full force. This will be the first NFL season without Tom Brady in 24 seasons marking the end of the most dominant career in NFL history. Mahomes is now the measuring stick in the NFL and the rest of the league will be gunning for them. Let’s look at how things might shake down in 2023.
AFC Betting Preview
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (9.5/+120/+300/+900) - The Bills remain the top dog in the AFC East and are a +120 to win the division for the fourth straight season. The Bills lost to Cincinnati in the divisional round last year and have yet to go to the Super Bowl since losing four straight games from 1991-94. The Bills return a great defense and one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen. They lost primary RB Devin Singletary in free agency but added Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to support undersized second-year back, James Cook. The WR group should be solid with Stephon Diggs leading the way. Diggs has been grumbling a bit in the offseason about targets which is something to watch. The pieces are there for the Bills but there should be concern with a defense that is getting older and an offense that relies far too much on Allen to do nearly all the heavy lifting. Win Total - Over, but barely.
Miami Dolphins (9.5/+120/+1100/+2500) - The Dolphins earned a playoff spot last year and nearly knocked off the Bills in the wild-card round despite starting their third-string quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa’s health will be central to this team’s success again this season. He missed four games in the regular season and then the playoff game as well. The Dolphins did strengthen their QB room by adding Mike White to the roster from the Jets. Defensively, Miami added All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with Xavier Howard to give the Dolphins a secondary that should be able to compete with the likes of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. The Dolphins appear to be most equipped to knock off the Bills but can Tagovailoa keep improving and stay healthy? Win Total - Under
New England Patriots (7.5/+800/+3500/+6500) - The Patriots made it to the last game of the season last year before being eliminated from the playoffs by the Bills. New England has lost five of their last six against the Bills and will need to clear that hurdle if the team is serious about winning the division. New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will immediately bring credibility to the New England offense. QB Mac Jones should have a stable environment to play under this year and has some weapons to work with including free agent pickups WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Mike Gesicki. Defensively, New England drafted DB Christian Gonzalez in the first round and he’s projected to earn a starting spot. New England will need to find a way to move the ball through the air this season to make a playoff push. Win Total: Over but not enough to get in the playoffs.
New York Jets (9.5/+270/+1100/+1800) - The Jets pushed their chips to the middle of the table this offseason, securing future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Packers. The team added wide receivers Allan Lazard, Mecole Hardman Jr., and Randall Cobb to support Rodgers as well. The Jets return a young and hungry defense led by CB Sauce Gardner. The pieces are in place. Can the offensive line keep the veteran Rodgers healthy and effective? Win Total: Over, the Jets will squeak into the playoffs with 10 wins.
AFC East Predicted Finish: 1. Buffalo Bills 2. New York Jets 3. New England Patriots and 4. Miami Dolphins
The Bills will take a step back in wins this year but should have enough to hang on to win the division. The Jets and Patriots will battle for the second and third spots with the Jets edging out the Pats with a better offense. The Dolphins look like a team that could step back this season. Banking on Tagovailoa will be their downfall.
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AFC Central
Baltimore Ravens (9.5/+120/+1100/+2500) - It was an interesting offseason for the Ravens. They battled but ultimately signed former MVP Lamar Jackson to a $260M contract. They upgraded at wide receiver with now five former first-round draft picks on their roster headed by Odell Beckham Jr. and they return a solid defense led by LB Roquan Smith. As always, the team’s fortunes will rest squarely on the shoulders, and legs, of Jackson and his ability to stay healthy in a new offense led by former Georgia OC Todd Monken. They also need running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to stay healthy. Win Total: Over, the Ravens will get 12 wins and take the division.
Cincinnati Bengals (11.5/+150/+550/+1100) - The Bengals have as good an offense as there is in football with arguably the best 1-2 punch at WR in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, a top-five quarterback in Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon at RB. Their offensive line improved last season and should be even better this season with the addition of OT Orlando Brown Jr. The Bengals also have a physical defense that is built for the playoffs, though safety might be an issue. Can they return to the Super Bowl this year after splitting the previous two AFC title games with KC? Win Total: Under, but barely.
Cleveland Browns (9.5/+425/+2200/+4000) - The Browns enter year two of the Deshaun Watson era with hopes high. Watson struggled early last year but showed flashes of his former self toward the end of the season. The Browns have the running game led by Nick Chubb and the makings of an excellent defense. With Kevin Stefanski, it appears that they finally have a coaching staff that has been together for multiple seasons. They paid a high price assuming Watson was the missing piece. It is now time for him to reward their gamble. They are in a tough division so there is very little margin for error. Win Total: Under
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5/+450/+2500/+5000) - The Steelers appear to be in rebuild mode even if they haven’t officially suggested such a thing. The team continues to produce thanks to one of the best and perhaps most underappreciated coaches in the NFL Mike Tomlin. Still, the team has a mediocre quarterback in second-year starter Kenny Pickett, a suspect offensive line, and a defense that works hard but is getting a bit long in the tooth, at least on the defensive line. Tomlin has done wonders with this team the last several years but this could be the year that the Steelers drop back significantly. Win Total: Way under
Predicted Finish: 1. Baltimore Ravens 2. Cincinnati Bengals 3. Cleveland Browns and 4. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens look primed to make a push again this season with a stellar WR group and a healthy Jackson. The Bengals will still be very good and make the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do it as a wildcard team. The Browns will be as good as Watson plays this season while the Steelers could be looking at a 6-11 type of year.
AFC South
Houston Texans (6.5/+800/+10,000/+20,000) - The Texans have a new coach - defensive-minded Demeco Ryans-a new quarterback, C.J. Stroud, and a new defensive line stud in edge rusher Willie Anderson. They also strengthened the offensive line in front of Stroud and Ryans will surely tighten up the defense. Stroud has a ways to go before he is a legitimate starting quarterback and Ryans will have his work cut out for him since the talent level has some catching up to do for the rest of the AFC. This is going to be a long road ahead for an extremely young team, but at least they are in a bad division. Win Total: Under
Indianapolis Colts (6.5/+550/+7000/+10,000) - Like the Texans, this team is new at several key spots. Most notably, the team has a new head coach in former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and a new quarterback in first-round draft choice Anthony Richardson out of Florida. Steichen has a great track record with young quarterbacks after his work with both Justin Herbert and Jaylen Hurts but Richardson is raw and this rebuild will take time. Expect Jonathan Taylor to be given a ton of carries, but most of their opponents will be stacking the box to slow down the running game. Over 6.5 wins may be a struggle. Win Total: Under
Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5/+550/+7000/+10,000) - How quickly things have turned in the AFC South that the Jaguars are the most stable franchise in the division. This team got to the divisional round of the playoffs last season and has shown that they can play with some of the elite teams in the NFL. It also helps to have a competent coach in Doug Pederson over an incompetent one in Urban Meyer. Third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence could have a breakout year statistically with a great trio of receivers in Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Zay Jones. Ridley could end up being one of the more underrated pickups in the league. This is the Jags’ division to lose in 2023. Win Total: Over, the Jags will get at least five wins in the division.
Tennessee Titans (7.5/+425/+5500/+8000) – Veteran Ryan Tannehill is back again at quarterback for the Titans after an injury-plagued 2022 season. He has a few new toys this season, most notably WR DeAndre Hopkins who recently signed. Head Coach Mike Vrabel prefers a hard-nosed style reliant on his ground game and line play on both sides of the ball. Does “King” Derrick Henry have much left in the tank at running back? He’s had 946 carries over the last three seasons despite missing nine games in 2021. This team is the only viable threat to Jacksonville in the division. Win Total: Over, the Titans will sneak over the total thanks to the poor AFC South.
Predicted Finish: 1. Jacksonville Jaguars 2. Tennessee Titans 3. Indianapolis Colts and 4. Houston Texans
This is the Jaguars’ division to lose. They have all the pieces to win a mediocre division comfortably. Tennessee will be interesting this season. They have some quality veteran pieces and a solid head coach but the quarterback situation is dicey. Indianapolis and Houston are both starting rookie quarterbacks and will likely battle for the basement in the AFC South.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (8.5/+550/+2500/+4000) - The Russell Wilson experiment is in year 2 in Denver as the Broncos continue their search for a viable quarterback since the retirement of Peyton Manning. Things should be much better this season with new head coach Sean Peyton taking the reins after a successful run in New Orleans. An improved offensive line should also help Wilson with the addition of RT Mike McGlinchey. Peyton should improve an offense that couldn’t keep up with the team’s defense last year. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? Wilson’s improvement level will tell that story and the fact that he’s in excellent shape doesn’t hurt. Win Total: Over, they won’t make the playoffs but can get nine wins.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5/-165/+330/+600) - Can the Chiefs become the first team to repeat since the New England Patriots in 2003-2004? They have the key pieces in place, most notably MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes makes a relatively marginal WR group better, the ground game more dangerous, and is able to keep plays alive for a decent offensive line. The Chiefs gambled with a young defense last season and it paid off with a Super Bowl title. DT Chris Jones is looking for a monstrous contract and will put up huge numbers again. The unit is a year older and championship-tested this season. It’s also very tough to repeat. Win Total: Under, the Chiefs will get to 11 wins but not win the division.
Las Vegas Raiders (7.5/+1200/+4000/+6500) - Jimmy Garoppolo replaces veteran Derek Carr at quarterback. Save for familiarity with head coach Josh McDaniels, this doesn’t appear to be an upgrade. Jimmy G. is a winner, but has averaged just 12 starts a season over the last four so durability is always an issue. At least they have one of the premier receivers in the game in Davante Adams but must replace speedy TE Darren Waller, who was traded to the NY Giants. The Raiders have a top-five RB in Josh Jacobs and a top-five WR in Davante Adams but the jury is out on McDaniels as a head coach. Jacobs also wants a new contract and could potentially hold out. I’m not a believer. This will be the weakest team in the AFC West. Win Total: Under
Los Angeles Chargers (9.5/+340/+1300/+2500) - The Chargers look like the one team that could possibly wrestle the division title away from the Chiefs. They have the quarterback in Justin Herbert and they’ve even added an additional weapon for him with the drafting of WR Quentin Johnston. RB Austin Ekeler is also a tremendous weapon out of the backfield. They potentially have an elite receiving corps if Mike Williams and Keenan Allen can stay healthy. The Chargers suffered a ton of injuries defensively last year and still earned a playoff spot. If they can stay healthy there, this team should pass the 9.5-win total and threaten the Chiefs for the division. Win Total: Over, they’ll win between 12-13 this season.
Predicted Finish: 1. Los Angeles Chargers 2. Kansas City Chiefs 3. Denver Broncos and 4. Las Vegas Raiders
This is my upset division-winner pick. The Chargers have all the pieces in place on both sides of the ball and have consistently played the Chiefs tough. Don’t worry, the Chiefs are going to make the playoffs but they may not be as driven to come out with the best record this season. The Broncos will be interesting. If Wilson can find some of his past glory, they could fight for a playoff spot. I am not a Josh McDaniels believer. He is an excellent offensive coordinator but he has not shown, now in his second opportunity, that he has the chops to lead a team from the top.
Most Overvalued AFC Team 2023: Pittsburgh Steelers - take the under total of 8.5 wins for the Steelers this season. Tomlin has done wonders keeping them relevant the last few seasons but the team’s lack of offensive explosiveness will catch up to them this season. Runner-up: Miami Dolphins (9.5)
Most Undervalued AFC Team 2023: LA Chargers - I don’t expect too many surprises in the AFC this season but the Chargers should surpass their 9.5 win total and push toward 12 to 13 wins this year. Runner-up: Tennessee Titans (7.5)
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (9.5/+190/+600/+650) - The Cowboys have given QB Dak Prescott all the tools to succeed. He has a top-flight offensive line, key additions at WR, and Tony Pollard is back to lead the running back group. He is now the main back with Ezekiel Elliott released due to cap reasons. Pollard also has arguably the NFL’s most talented defense playing on the other side of the ball. The scary thing is that OLB Micah Parsons is moving to defensive end and could shatter some sack records. It is officially put up or shut up time for Prescott. He needs to make better decisions and this could be the year that he finally leads Dallas back to the Super Bowl. Win Total: Over
New York Giants (7.5/+850/+2500/+6500) - This feels like a step-back season for the Giants after surprising the NFL with a playoff appearance in 2022. Star running back Saquon Barkley has spent much of the offseason unhappy with his contract and QB Daniel Jones will have to replicate his surprise season from a year ago. The addition of TE Darren Waller will help, though he appears to be on the decline at the age of 30. Teams will be ready for Jones’ ability to run this year and, if forced to throw, he will struggle. This looks like a team that will go under its win total. Win Total: Under, Giants take a step back this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (11.5/-125/+250/+650) - The Eagles came oh so close to their second Super Bowl title in under ten years last year but fell just short. That should have been their year. Everything went right, including the team’s health. NFL history has shown just how difficult it is to repeat as Super Bowl Champion, let alone how difficult it is for the Super Bowl loser to get back. Philadelphia also just lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs. This is still a very talented team, but everything went right last season. I think the Eagles will earn a playoff spot but that 11.5-win total might be a stretch. Win Total: Under, expect the Eagles to get to 11 wins and earn a wildcard berth.
Washington Commanders (6.5/+1200/+4000/+6500) - Win or lose, this season has already been a success with the departure of Daniel Snyder as the owner of the Commanders. Second-year QB Sam Howell will be given the quarterback job, despite starting just one game last season, with free-agent pickup Jacoby Brissett as his able backup. The defense is very strong, but the offense has a ways to go. Eric Bieniemy takes over as the offensive coordinator for Scott Turner. It will be rough sailing for the Commanders this year as they pick up the pieces from the horrific Daniel Snyder Era and this is such a difficult division to compete in. Win Total: Under. Growing pains for the Commanders this season with a new QB.
Predicted Finish: 1. Dallas Cowboys 2. Philadelphia Eagles 3. New York Giants and 4. Washington Commanders
The Super Bowl loss hangover is real. The Eagles had nearly everything go right in 2022 and still came up short. The Cowboys’ defense is every bit as good as the Eagles, if not better, and they have the skilled players on offense to win early and often. The Giants and Commanders will battle it out for the third and fourth spots in the division. I don’t see the Giants replicating last year’s record, particularly with an offseason full of strife with star running back Barkley. The Commanders have already won with the ousting of owner Dan Snyder.
NFC Central
Chicago Bears (7.5/+425/+3000/+5000) - The Bears got a true #1 wide receiver for QB Justin Fields in their deal for DJ Moore from Carolina. Fields might be ready to make the major leap into stardom this season. Fields is a great runner, but the loss of David Montgomery as a runner and receiver could hurt some. The Bears have depth at wide receiver and tight end, a much-improved offensive line, and a quarterback who will win games this year that he shouldn’t. They look like a team that will surpass their win total of 7.5. Win Total: Over; Bears will surprise plenty of teams in 2023.
Detroit Lions (9.5/+130/+1000/+2200) - For the first time in two decades, the Lions are the favorite to win the division. I’m not biting. This win total is high for a team that played far too many high-scoring affairs in 2022 that they were able to turn into wins. They also have to face the AFC West, which is usually a very tough division. They lost some depth at running back with the departure of Jamaal Williams and I’m not a huge fan of Dan Campbell in head-to-head coaching matchups. This could be a great play on the under on the win total. Win Total: Over, but barely. The Lions will win 10 but just miss the division title.
Green Bay Packers (7.5/+475/+3000/+6500) - The Jordan Love Era has arrived and, with it, lowered expectations in Green Bay. The 7.5 over/under win line is the lowest for the Packers since 2007. Love will be better than some people think but he’s playing behind a mediocre offensive line and has a depleted wide receiver group. He will have to run more and that’s going to be an emphasis with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the backfield. The defense also was mediocre last season and will need to be much better without Aaron Rodgers. They won’t be. Win Total: Under; Packers will be just off the pace of this total probably topping out at seven wins.
Minnesota Vikings (8.5/+250/+1500/+3500) - Here’s a crazy stat for the Vikings in 2022: They went 13-4 but posted a -3 point differential and lost by an average of 22.2 points per game in their four defeats. Nine wins would be a reasonable assumption for a team that didn’t make any significant additions this season. Kirk Cousins should be more comfortable with the offense as Kevin O’Connell enters his second season as the head coach and coordinator. However, this could be his last season if he can’t win in the postseason. After a winnable opener against the Bucs, they face the Eagles and Chargers in the next two. Could be a losing start for this Vikings team. Win Total: Under; the odds will catch up to the Vikings this season.
Predicted Finish: 1. Chicago Bears 2. Detroit Lions 3. Minnesota Vikings and 4. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay will be better than people think this season. They have a better-than-average defense, a great running game, and the team is confident in Love at quarterback. I’m not ready to commit to the Lions despite their strong finish in 2022. Great offensive line and a solid defensive front but I’m not sure they can match X’s and O’s with most teams. The Bears will be the surprise team in the NFL this season as Fields ascends up the quarterback ladder while the Vikings will take a step back after winning an inordinate number of close games in 2022.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (8.5/+215/+2800/+6000) - Atlanta, like the entire NFC South Division, will be starting a new quarterback under center from last year’s opener. Head Coach Arthur Smith has decided to let 2nd-year QB Desmond Ridder lead the charge this year and they have a legitimate shot to win the division. Having a healthy tight end in Kyle Pitts and the improvement of WR Drake London will be paramount to their success. But with rookie Bijan Robinson to pair with Tyler Allgeier, this is going to be an excellent running team. The Falcons added depth and talent to their defense with the addition of S Jessie Bates III and could realistically make the jump from last to first in a wide-open NFC South Division. Win Total: Over; Nine wins in this weak division is very possible for the Falcons.
Carolina Panthers (7.5/+400/+4000/+7000) - This feels like the most overblown win total in the NFL. The Panthers will be playing a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young at QB and parted ways with their most dynamic offensive player in WR DJ Moore. I’m very very skeptical of Young’s ability to produce in the NFL with his tiny stature. He’s not just short but is very slight. I worry about Young’s durability this season. It will be a rough one for the NFL’s #1 pick. New head coach Frank Reich will have his work cut out for him Veteran backup QB Andy Dalton better get his arm warmed up. Win Total: WAY Under. The Panthers will struggle to win five games this year.
New Orleans Saints (9.5/+120/+1300/+4000) - Derek Carr’s arrival in New Orleans gives the Saints a leg up on the rest of the division. The Saints have the talent around Carr to win the division this season and double-digit wins seem like a reasonable expectation in a very weak division. One concern will be the availability of RB Alvin Kamara following his legal issues but adding RB Jamaal Williams from Detroit should help alleviate those concerns. Getting a healthy WR Michael Thomas back to full strength would be icing on the cake. The Saints appear to be the class of the NFC South. Win Total: Over; the Saints will squeak out ten wins thanks to a weak division.
Tampa Bay Bucs (6.5/+800/+4500/+8000) - The signing of Tom Brady brought the Bucs a Super Bowl title and credibility in his three seasons in Tampa Bay. Now the Bucs will take their hand with a far different type of quarterback in former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield at the helm. This is Mayfield’s fourth team in less than two seasons and the Bucs will find out why quickly. Mayfield will turn the ball over frequently and the aging Bucs will fall short of their projected win total. Dave Canales takes over for Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator, but he needs a better quarterback to be successful. This is a team that should start to rebuild and select an elite quarterback in the 2024 draft. Win Total: Under; It is going to be a long, Brady-less year for the Bucs.
Predicted Finish: 1. New Orleans Saints 2. Atlanta Falcons 3. Carolina Panthers and 4. Tampa Bay Bucs
New Orleans will win what may be football’s worst division in 2023. It won’t be pretty and nine wins could win this division. Atlanta will be the only team to threaten New Orleans but inexperience at quarterback will be their undoing. The Bucs and Panthers will both be looking at a high draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (4.5/+2500/+10,000/+20,000) - This could very well be the worst team in the NFL this season. New head coach Jonathan Gannon takes over a team that was picked as a threat to win the division last season and now looks like a team that may win four games or less. QB Kyler Murray tore his ACL at the end of last season and really should be held out for the entire season in 2023. Without him and the release of WR DeAndre Hopkins, this team will be hard-pressed to score very many points. It’ll be a long, long season in the desert with Colt McCoy and David Blough playing quarterback. Win Total: Under; three wins might be a strong year for this weak team.
Los Angeles Rams (6.5/+1000/+4500/+6500) - The Rams return several key pieces from their Super Bowl title run in 2022. Head coach Sean McVay and superstar DL Aaron Donald both decided to return after flirting with retirement. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp are both back after missing large chunks of last season due to injury. The team did part with several other veterans and will need vast improvement from their offensive line this year to keep Stafford upright. This might be the last ride for their top players because they desperately need to bring in some high draft picks for the future. That said, this could be a team that jumps over its projected win total with several key veterans back. Win Total: Over; the Rams will get to at least eight wins.
San Francisco 49ers (10.5/-160/+425/+1000) - The win total of 10.5 for the Niners feels a bit high to me given the uncertainty at quarterback. Brock Purdy is the projected starter but he’s coming off of elbow surgery. If Trey Lance is pushed into the starter’s role, will he be mentally sound to take the role after being ousted from his previous projection as franchise quarterback? Sam Darnold is also around if Purdy can’t stay healthy. The defense might be the best in football and they just added DT Javon Hargrave from the Eagles, an elite pass rusher from the inside. The Niners have the talent on both sides of the ball but I can see them taking a step back in win total while they sort out the quarterback situation. Win Total: Tough call here but I’m going to take the over with the Niners getting to 11 wins.
Seattle Seahawks (8.5/+195/+1100/+3000) - Another team I’m not particularly bullish on is the Seahawks. QB Geno Smith earned the Comeback Player of the Year award last year in a breakout season from the journeyman quarterback. He has talent around him but he finished the season playing not nearly as well as he started it. Playing the NFC East and the AFC North is not an easy task. If Smith doesn’t deliver, this team could look at under eight wins. Win Total: Under; the Seahawks will fall back in 2023 with Smith playing more like he did at the end of 2022 rather than the beginning of the season.
Predicted Finish: 1. San Francisco Giants 2. Seattle Seahawks 3. Los Angeles Rams and 4. Arizona Cardinals
The first and last positions in the division seem like locks. The 49ers have the league’s best defensive unit top to bottom and the best offensive coach in football which will get them to 11 wins. The Cardinals might be the worst team in the NFL this year and four wins will be an accomplishment. The other two spots will be tighter than you think. Seattle has to hope for a repeat performance from QB Geno Smith while the Rams welcome back Super Bowl champion QB Matthew Stafford.
Most Overvalued Team 2023: New York Giants - take the under total of 7.5 wins for the Giants this season. Jones won’t sneak up on anyone this year and the Giants will not return to the playoffs in 2023. Runner-up: Carolina Panthers (7.5)
Most Undervalued Team 2023: Chicago Bears - The Bears are ready to make the leap in a mediocre NFC Central Division this season. They will push toward double-digit wins in 2023. Runner-up: Los Angeles Rams (6.5)
