2024 March Madness Sweet 16 Picks for NCAA Tournament
2024 March Madness Betting Odds for NCAA Tournament
Throw away the NCAA Net Rankings and forget about the bubble teams. The NCAA Tournament starts on Tuesday with the First Four and then the Big Dance settles in for a long Thursday and Friday.
(odds from Draft Kings)
Let’s take a look at some good value as we take on the Sweet 16 Odds and more.
UConn is a -650 to reach the Sweet Sixteen, but a better bet to win the whole thing at +400.
As for the Sweet 16, there is a ton of chalk to take including UConn (-650) and Purdue (-475), but let’s take a look at a few dogs and good value picks that could win two games.
Mild Longshots
*Saint Mary’s (+180). There’s nothing really loveable about the Gaels, but you don’t want to play them. They face Grand Canyon and then the winner of the Charleston/Alabama game if they advance. Then it becomes all about pace of play as Alabama is at No. 9 in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom, Charleston is at 59 and Saint Mary’s is at 358. Nobody wants to play that slow. Ask Gonzaga, who the Gaels beat twice this season.
*Wisconsin (+225). The Badgers reached the Big 10 tournament finals, falling to a very good Illinois team. They beat Purdue to get there so we know what they are capable of doing. Some have them losing to JMU in the first round but Duke is vulnerable if they reach the second round. A.J. Storr, the St. John’s transfer wing, has become a real difference-maker. They also have good size and a quality 7-footer in Steven Crowl to go up against Kyle Filipowski.
Gonzaga (+135). This is not about Gonzaga as much as it’s about Kansas potentially losing to Samford in the first round due to injuries (Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar are ?). Even if they get past Samford and both players are available, it’s not likely they are remotely close to 100% as Dickinson just injured his shoulder about 10 days before against Houston. Bill Self said that he will practice on Monday, but he’s asking a lot for a big man to play against other bigs after suffering a dislocated shoulder. McCullar, who suffered a knee injury, is less likely to play. Kansas has little depth at wing and that would be a devastating loss.
New Mexico (+250). There’s something special about the Mountain West. Last season, it was San Diego State heading to the Fina Flour. New Mexico has Clemson and then could face Baylor, who is not unbeatable and not a great No. 3 seed. They won the MWC tournament and while they don’t have any great non-conference wins, they are ranked 23rd overall according to KenPom and are 23rd ranked in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also have two sons of NBA players in Jamal Mashburn Jr. (15.1ppg) and Jaelen House (15ppg), son of Eddie House.
Bigger Longshots
*Nebraska (+500) is playing very good basketball. They won seven of their last nine games to end the season. The only concern is a weak 322nd non-conference strength of schedule according to KenPom. But they are 28th in KenPom overall and 36th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also have a fun play to watch in Keisei Tominaga, who averages 14.6 points, but 20.5 points in two Big 10 tournament games.
