Brady's impact on handicapping the NFL
Tom Brady signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was more than just a shocking development in the NFL offseason. It sent shockwaves through the NFL, leaving fans in Boston with a heavy heart, while those in Buffalo were celebrating, hoping that the Patriots’ dynasty has finally ended.
The big question for the Patriots is whether they go with another veteran quarterback (Cam Newton? Jacoby Brissett?), do they trade up in the NFL Draft to select Tua Tagovailoa or do they go with second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham as the starter? On Sunday, March 22, they brought back journeyman Brian Hoyer for the third team. Another option is to just go with what they have and that’s obviously not enough to compete in the AFC.
Head coach Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest coach the game has ever seen. In 2008, he took a Brady-less Patriots (due to an ACL injury suffered in opener) and went 11-5 with Matt Cassel. But those teams were more talented than what he has now. Brady wanted more offensive weapons and he’ll have that luxury with the Bucs.
As it turned out, that 2008 New England squad did not make the playoffs and failed to win the AFC East (tied with Miami). That was the last time the Pats had failed to win the AFC East. So, for 11 straight seasons, New England has ruled the division and the AFC.
How does this change in terms of handicapping the 2020 NFL? As of March 16, the Patriots were listed at 10.5 in the Regular-season win totals category on BetOnline. Tampa Bay was at a 7.5 win total before the Brady signing. After the Brady signing, the Bucs moved to 9 wins (Over –135/Under +115) at the William Hill Sports Book. New England moved down to 9 wins (Over-105/Under -115).
Tampa Bay has a big-time receiver in Mike Evans and a future star in Chris Godwin. Evans caught 67 passes for 1,157 yards with 8 TDs, while Godwin finished third in the league with 1,333 receiving yards with 86 catches and nine TDs. Brady is not likely to throw the ball 626 times as Jameis Winston last season, who also led the league with 30 interceptions.
Having an improved running game will allow Brady to be more effective in the play-action. Ronald Jones was the top runner for the Bucs last season with just 724 yards and six TDs. An improved offensive line is essential to give an immobile Brady the time he needs to effectively use his weapons. But head coach Bruce Arians may be the perfect tonic Brady needs as he moves from a defensive-oriented coach in Belichick with a creative offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) to a proven offensive guy in Arians.
The bigger question now for Tampa Bay is whether the defense can catch up with their high-powered offense. It starts with improving a secondary that allowed 3,176 passing yards to wide receiver last season. They have a young nucleus and a spectacular pass rusher in OLB Shaq Barrett (19.5 sacks). They also re-signed OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks), so they have the pass rushers. They just need better production from their corners.
The Brady signing has potentially re-shaped two franchises and two conferences. Will Brady be the tonic for Tampa Bay just as Peyton Manning was for Denver a few years ago? That Broncos team was very impressive and was just a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl. The Bucs are not in that stratosphere yet, but as a handicapper, track their moves and draft along with New England’s. Brady may not be one of the most physically talented quarterbacks, but he is the greatest winner of them all.
