Connecticut Sun vs. Dallas Wings Prediction and Odds - 8/15/21
It’s an interconference tilt on the WNBA parquet as a pair of teams get their post-Olympic slate going here. The Connecticut Sun are on the road as they make the trip to face the Dallas Wings Sunday afternoon. Connecticut was beaten 79-57 on a neutral floor by Seattle in the Commissioner’s Cup final Wednesday night. Dallas fell 95-79 at home to Las Vegas in their final game before the All-Star and Olympic breaks back on July 11. The Sun have won five straight meetings and nine of the last 10 matchups between the squads. That includes an 80-70 home victory in the first meeting this season on June 22.
Connecticut Sun Seeking to Regroup After Commissioner’s Cup Loss
Connecticut was handled rather easily by Seattle in the Commissioner’s Cup final and look to regroup after that shellacking. The Sun enters the second half of the season with a four-game lead over the Sky for the best record in the Eastern Conference. In the WNBA playoff standings, they are third, 1.5 games behind the league-leading Storm. Against Seattle, Connecticut trailed by 10 after the opening quarter and 11 by the half before seeing the game put out of reach. In the third quarter, the Sun was outscored 22-5, removing all doubt as to which team would prevail in the contest. Connecticut was limited to 32.6% shooting from the floor, including five of 18 from three-point range, and turned the ball over 20 times, negating a 36-26 edge on the glass. DeWanna Bonner and Natisha Heideman each had 11 points to lead Connecticut in the loss.
The Sun is 9th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 79.4 points per game so far this season. Connecticut is second in the league in rebounding (37.3 boards a night) while they stand 10th by dishing out 17.9 assists a game on the year. The Sun have been good defensively as they are first in scoring defense by allowing an average of 73.2 points per game. DeWanna Bonner is second on the Sun with 15.8 points, seven rebounds and 3.6 assists a game. Jonquel Jones (team-high 21 points, 11.1 rebounds), Natisha Hiedeman (8.2 points) and Brionna Jones (15 points, 6.9 rebounds) each are valuable contributors. Jasmine Thomas (11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists), Briann January, Beatrice Mompreier, Stephanie Jones, DiJonai Carrington and Kaila Charles are important pieces for coach Curt Miller. Connecticut is fourth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.8% as a team. The Sun are fifth in three-pointers per game (7.3) and fifth in three-point percentage (35.7%) on the year. Connecticut has been mediocre at the charity stripe as they convert on 79.7% of their attempts, which is 7th in the league. Alyssa Thomas is questionable as she recovers from offseason surgery for a torn Achilles.
Dallas Wings Looking to Get Back on Track
Dallas went into the break losers of three straight and four of their previous five games as they were dropped by Las Vegas in their final game before the pause. The Wings enter the second half of the year ninth in the WNBA standings, half a game behind the Mystics for the final playoff spot. Against the Aces, Dallas led 8-2 early and held a seven-point edge early in the second quarter before things fell apart. The Wings trailed by six at the half and got no closer than five in the second half as the Aces pulled away. Dallas shot 33.7% from the floor, including seven of 24 from beyond the arc, and allowed Las Vegas to shoot 50.7% in the game. Allisha Gray had 14 points and six rebounds off the bench to lead the Wings in the loss.
The Wings come into this one third in the league in scoring with 85.1 points per game this season. Dallas is third in rebounding (36.9 boards per contest) but rank 9th in the league in assists with 18.1 per game. The Wings are struggling defensively, ranking 8th by allowing 83.6 points per contest. Arike Ogunbowale (18.9 points, three rebounds, 3.3 assists) is one of four players scoring in double figures for the Wings this season. Allisha Gray (11.6 points), Marina Mabrey (13.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists), Isabelle Harrison (9.5 points, 5.4 rebounds) and Kayla Thornton (8.6 points, 5.7 rebounds) are all capable scoring options as well. Charli Collier, Tyasha Harris, Chelsea Dungee, Awak Kuier, Moriah Jefferson, Satou Sabally (12.4 points, 6.3 boards), Dana Evans and Bella Alarie all can be looked to for minutes for coach Brian Agler. The Wings are eighth in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 42.5% as a team. Dallas is fourth in three-pointers per game (8.5) and stand third in the league in three-point shooting as they hit 36.1% from long range. The Wings are second in free throw shooting as they convert 84.3% of their chances at the stripe.
Pick: Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is the league’s stingiest defensive team and they are capable of shutting teams down. The Sun also has the same advantage that the Storm has in having played a game already coming out of the Olympic break. That’s something that Dallas hasn’t had and they could struggle trying to get some sort of rhythm together. We’re looking at a Wings team that has had problems defensively and they are facing the league’s best team when it comes to shutting teams down. Even with the loss to Seattle in the Commissioner’s Cup final, the Sun kept the Storm under their season average for points. Here, Connecticut takes advantage of a leaky Dallas team to get the win.
Total: Under
Connecticut is a stingy defensive team, leading the league in scoring defense while ranking second in field goal percentage defense (41.2%) on the year. The Sun have seen the under hit in 13 of their 20 games on the season, including five of their previous seven heading into the break. That trend continued by falling 18 points short of the mark in the Commissioner’s Cup final Wednesday. Dallas has seen the under go 11-9 with one push in their games this season as the totals are usually inflated in their games due to the Wings’ offensive attack and defensive deficiencies. The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams and that seems likely to be the path here as Connecticut’s defense rules the day.
