Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/21/21

It’s an interconference clash on the parquet floor in the Valley of the Sun in WNBA action. The Connecticut Sun are on the road as they make the trip to face the Phoenix Mercury Friday night. Connecticut comes in off an 88-67 home dismantling of Indiana in their previous contest Wednesday night. Phoenix drubbed Washington 91-70 on the road Tuesday night. These teams have already met once in the first week-plus of the season, with Connecticut earning an 86-78 home victory on Sunday. The Sun have won five of the last six meetings with the Mercury: will Connecticut continue having Phoenix orbit around them?

Connecticut Sun Looking to Run Mark to 4-0

Connecticut had little problem taking down winless Indiana at home once they got things going Wednesday night. The Sun are one of two 3-0 teams in the WNBA entering Thursday along with the Liberty, so they’ll look to remain unbeaten here. Connecticut found themselves down 13-5 with 6:22 to play in the first quarter before getting untracked. They closed the quarter on a 21-7 run to lead by six after the first quarter. The Sun outscored the Fever 24-13 in the second quarter to lead by 17 at the half before rolling the rest of the way. Connecticut shot 55.2% from the field, including 10 of 21 from three-point range, and held Indiana to 36.2% shooting in the contest. Natisha Hiedeman led the Sun with 19 points, six assists and three steals off the bench.

The Sun is fourth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 84 points per game so far this season. Connecticut is seventh in the league in rebounding (38 boards a night) while they stand second by dishing out 21.3 assists a game on the year. The Sun have been good defensively as they are second in scoring defense by allowing an average of 70.7 points per game. DeWanna Bonner leads the Sun with 20.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists a game. Jonquel Jones (19 points, 10.7 rebounds), Natasha Hiedeman (15 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists) and and Brionna Jones (11 points, 5.7 rebounds) each average in double figures. Jasmine Thomas, Briann January, Beatrice Mompreier, Stephanie Jones, DiJonai Carrington and Kaila Charles are important pieces for coach Curt Miller. Connecticut is third in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.4% as a team. The Sun is third in three-pointers per game (9.3) and second in three-point percentage (45.9%) on the year. Connecticut has sputtered at the charity stripe as they convert on 71.4 percent of their attempts, which is 10th in the league. January suffered a lower-leg injury on May 19 against Indiana and the severity of that injury is unknown.

Phoenix Mercury Try to Avenge Previous Loss to Sun

Phoenix bounced back from their first loss of the season as they trounced the Mystics on the road Wednesday night. The Mercury now try to avenge that loss to the Sun as they take the floor for their home opener here. Against Washington, Phoenix led 8-0 early and regrouped after Washington reeled off eight in a row themselves to tie the score. The Mercury took a three-point lead after the opening quarter, extended their lead to seven at the half and didn’t let Washington closer than four the rest of the way as they earned the victory. Phoenix shot 45.5% from the field, including 11 of 28 from three-point range, and owned a 50-34 edge on the glass. Diana Taurasi paced six Mercury players in double figures with 17 points in the win.

The Mercury are sixth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 82 points per game. Phoenix is third in rebounding (39.7 rebounds) per contest and stands third in the league by handing out 20.7 assists a night. The Mercury is fifth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 77 points per game. Diana Taurasi leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.7 points a night. Brittney Griner (15.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 blocks), Skylar Diggins-Smith (15.3 points, 4.7 assists) and Brianna Turner (10.3 points, 10.7 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is sixth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.4% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is fifth in three-pointers per game (7.7 per game) and sixth in three-point shooting (31.5%) this season. Phoenix is eighth in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 75% of their chances on the year.

Trends:

Connecticut

• Sun are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall

• Sun are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games

• Sun are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog

Phoenix

• Mercury are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
• Mercury are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest

Pick: Connecticut Sun +2.5

We saw these teams meet in Connecticut earlier this week and it was the Sun prevailing by eight points to get the victory. Bonner makes her return to the Valley of the Sun after spending the first 10 years in the league with the Mercury. This is her second year with the Sun but last season was played in the bubble down in Florida, so there were no true home or away tilts. The clash between Bonner/Jones and Griner/Turner in the low block and on the glass is going to be a war and well worth the price of admission. Connecticut has shot the ball well in the early going and they are one of the teams that can match the perimeter shooting of the Mercury. Seeing that they own a win already over Phoenix, you have to give the edge to Connecticut here in a well-contested game.

Pick: Connecticut Sun