Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview, Prediction and Odds - 6/11/21
There's a battle of Western Conference teams on the parquet floor in WNBA action in the Valley of the Sun. The Dallas Wings are on the road as they travel to face the Phoenix Mercury in the second game of a two-game series Friday night. On Tuesday night, it was Dallas clawing out an 85-81 victory on the road to ensure themselves of no worse than a split of the two-game set. That evened the season series at a victory apiece coming into this contest. Which team will get the upper hand in the season series by prevailing in this contest?
Dallas Wings Looking for Third Straight Win
Dallas won their second straight game and third in the last four games as they earned the victory in the first meeting of this two-game set here. The Wings improved to 4-5 on the season and entered Thursday holding the final playoff spot in the WNBA playoff picture. Dallas trailed 4-0 early before regrouping to lead by six after the opening quarter. The Wings extended their edge to seven at the half but found themselves even after three quarters. Dallas held a two-point lead with 5:25 to play before reeling off an 11-2 run to go up 81-70 with 1:41 remaining. The Wings held off a late Mercury charge for the win. Dallas shot 42.7% from the field, including 10 of 26 from three-point range, and held a 41-36 edge on the glass. Arike Ogunbowale led the Wings with 22 points in the win.
The Wings come into this one third in the league in scoring with 87.4 points per game this season. Dallas is first in rebounding (39.4 boards per contest) but rank 8th in the league in assists with 18.6 per game. The Wings are struggling defensively, ranking 10th by allowing 85.7 points per contest. Allisha Gray is third on the team by averaging 13 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game on the year. Arike Ogunbowale (22.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, three assists), Marina Mabrey (18.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists), Isabelle Harrison (8.9 points, 6.5 rebounds) and Kayla Thornton (10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds) are all capable scoring options as well. Charli Collier, Tyasha Harris, Chelsea Dungee, Awak Kuier, Moriah Jefferson, Satou Sabally (10.3 points, seven boards), Dana Evans, Kristine Anigwe and Bella Alarie all can be looked to for minutes for coach Brian Agler. The Wings are seventh in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 42.7% as a team. Dallas is fourth in three-pointers per game (8.9) and stands fifth in the league in three-point shooting as they hit 36.2% from long range. The Wings are fifth in free throw shooting as they convert 81% of their chances at the stripe.
Phoenix Mercury Trying to Bounce Back
Phoenix struggled on Tuesday night as they trailed most of the way and couldn’t find a way to ground the Wings as they went down in defeat. The Mercury entered Thursday 5-4 on the year and held the fifth spot in the WNBA playoff picture. Phoenix scored the first four points of the game only to find themselves down six after the opening quarter. The Mercury trailed by seven at the half, charged back to tie the game after three quarters but never took the lead. Phoenix gave up a three-pointer to start the fourth quarter and never got back to even again. The Mercury were within two with 5:25 to play before giving up an 11-2 run to trail by 11 with under two minutes to play. Phoenix couldn’t get closer than two in the final seconds as they took the loss. The Mercury shot 41.4% from the field, including just five of 25 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 41-36. Brittney Griner paced Phoenix with 27 points and 16 rebounds in a losing effort.
The Mercury are ninth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 80.3 points per game. Phoenix is fifth in rebounding (36.6 rebounds) per contest and stands fifth in the league by handing out 20.1 assists a night. The Mercury are fifth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80.8 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is leading the Mercury in scoring with 19.7 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (18.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.6 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.8 points, 3.8 assists) and Brianna Turner (7.2 points, 8.7 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (11.2 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is third in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 44.5% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is ninth in three-pointers per game (6.6 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (30.9%) this season. Phoenix is 11th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 75.3% of their chances on the year. Taurasi was announced to have suffered a fractured sternum that she sustained on May 16 against the Sun and is out until late June. She is expected to miss at least four weeks.
Pick: Dallas Wings +2
After picking against the Wings on Tuesday, I’m pivoting toward them in this one. The Mercury had a terrible time shooting the ball in the loss Tuesday and Dallas leads the league in rebounding. Sabally and Gray’s return to the mix have bolstered things for the Wings and made them that much more dangerous. Meanwhile, Phoenix has been up and down without Taurasi as she’s the consummate professional whose leadership can be a stabilizing force. Dallas hasn’t been great defensively but they’re starting to click right now. Based on that and what we saw Tuesday, you have to give the edge to the Wings.
Total: Over 166
Tuesday’s game was a push when all was said and done but we know that both teams have the ability to put points on the board in big numbers. The teams have seen the over go 4-0-1 in their last five meetings and 6-3-1 in their last 10 matchups overall. Dallas is leaky defensively as they are content trying to run and gun their way past opposing teams. The Wings have plenty of weapons on the offensive end and the Mercury have talented pieces of their own. Dallas has seen the over go 4-4-1 this season while Phoenix has seen the under go 5-3-1 on the year. Lean toward this one edging over the mark seeing how Tuesday was a push: it won’t be hard to get a couple more points on the board.
