Full NBA Finals Preview From David Hess
The NBA Finals have arrived and we will see the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Phoenix Suns. These are the two teams we all thought would be here at the beginning of the year, right? Milwaukee just took out the Atlanta Hawks in six games while the Suns took down the Clippers in six games as well. Let’s take a gander at how these teams stack up for this series.
The Milwaukee Bucks came into the postseason as the 3rd seed in the Eastern Conference. Their journey started by sweeping the Miami Heat in four games before taking down the Nets in a grueling seven-game series. In the Eastern Conference finals, the Bucks took care of the Hawks in six games. It was not an easy series and they did play without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games. Giannis has averaged 28.2 ppg in the postseason so far, but he is listed as questionable for this one. Khris Middleton has picked up the slack and has averaged 29.0 ppg over his last two games and 20.4 ppg in the postseason overall. Jrue Holiday has averaged 17.6 ppg in the postseason while Brook Lopes has put up 13.5 ppg to round out their double-digit scorers in the playoffs.
Milwaukee comes in ranked 10th in playoff scoring at 109.8 ppg, while ranking 2nd in playoff scoring defense at 103.7 ppg. Playoffs do breed lower scoring games and Milwaukee’s contests during the regular season averaged 234.3 ppg, compared to just 213.5 ppg in the postseason. Milwaukee has gone 25-20 on the road this year and they have averaged 117.1 ppg and have allowed 113.9 ppg in those games. It will not be easy for them here as the Suns have been a dominant home team this year. It will be even more difficult if the Bucks do not have Giannis on the floor. Milwaukee has solid depth and it worked against the Hawks, but how will they fare against a strong Phoenix team without their superstar on the court? We shall see.
The Phoenix Suns finished 3rd in the Pacific Division last year with a 34-39 record, but the offseason acquisitions of Chris Paul and Jae Crowder propelled the Suns to 30 games over .500 and the 2nd best record in the league. Phoenix took out the Lakers in six games, the Nuggets in four, and the Clippers in six to get to the Finals for just the 2nd time in their history and the first time since 1992/93. Monty Williams has done an amazing job with the suns in just two years and this is the first time they have been in the playoffs since 2009/10. Chris Paul has been on some very good teams in his 16-year career, but this is the first time he will be playing in the NBA Finals. He is 2nd on the team in playoff scoring at 18.1 ppg, while dishing out 8.7 apg. Crowder has had a nice postseason, averaging 10.4 ppg, while hitting 90.5% of his free throws and 36.9% of his shots from long range.
Leading the team in scoring during the postseason is Devin Booker at 27.0 ppg and he is the one the Bucks have to focus on. Deandre Ayton averaged 11.7 boards per game and he will be key for the Suns here as the Bucks killed the Hawks on the boards in their last series. Phoenix ranks 11th in postseason scoring at 108.9 ppg while also ranking 1st in points allowed at 101.8 ppg. Phoenix has been a strong defensive team, all year and they allowed just 103.7 ppg in the series against the Clippers. Phoenix has been a dynamite home team this year where they have gone 33-11 and have averaged 115.5 ppg and have allowed 106.5 ppg in those games. The Suns are relatively healthy for this one and they have not played since June 30th. Healthy and well-rested is a good combo to have.
So Who Will Take Home The Crown?
The Milwaukee Bucks have had a very good season so far, and they were able to take down the Atlanta Hawks with their best player missing the final two games of that series. Giannis is listed as questionable for the game, but you can bet that he will play the majority of this series. That could pose problems for the Suns, especially when driving to the rim as Giannis is an intimidating presence in there. Still, I have to feel that this is the Suns’ series to lose. Chris Paul has taken his game to a higher level this year and especially in the postseason. He can drive and dish for the open three, or just pull up for one of his patented mid-range jumper. Phoenix also has another superstar in Devin Booker, who has had an outstanding postseason so far.
Yes, the Bucks have Khris Middleton, who has upped his game of late, but can he sustain that? Milwaukee also has just four players that have averaged more than 9.3 ppg in the playoffs, while the Suns have six players that have averaged at least 10.1 ppg in the postseason. Another factor is the West vs East talent gap. The Suns played a much tougher schedule than the Bucks did during the regular season. The West had nine teams with a better than .500 record while the East had just six. Milwaukee was the only team in their division to post a better than .500 record and they faced and their playoff opponents had a combined win pct of 59.7%. Phoenix finished 30 games over .500 for the year but still, was just the 2nd best team in the West and the teams they faced in the postseason had a win pct of 63.0% during the regular season.
The Bucks rebounded very well against the Hawks and they are tops in rebounding during the postseason but the Suns are not far behind at 4th. Phoenix has more size than Atlanta had and they have some scrappy players that will get the 50-50 balls. Phoenix has the edge at the charity stripe and from beyond the arc, plus the all-important home-court edge. Phoenix has a strong homecourt advantage, but they were also the best road team in the league during the regular season, going 24-12 away from home. Phoenix has all the edges in this one and I expect them to win the series in five games. Yes, they are that good.
