NBA Series Betting Predictions
With six of the NBA first-round series known as of Thursday afternoon, Ben Hayes takes a look at the winner of each series, the series correct score and how many games will it go?
Odds from BetMGM
4)Philadelphia vs. 5)Toronto
Philadelphia has the homecourt advantage, however, the Raptors have the real advantage because Matisse Thybulle can’t play in Toronto because he’s not fully vaccinated. Thybulle (5.7ppg, 1.7spg) is known for his defense and with James Harden replacing Ben Simmons, the Sixers are struggling to defense. They are allowing teams to shoot 45.8% (15th) from the field. Toronto is 9th in Defensive Ratings according to DunksandThrees.com and they have a lot of length led by 6-9 Pascal Siakam (22.8ppg, 8.5rpg, 5.3apg). They also should have 6-7, 232-pound OG Anunoby (17.1ppg, 5.5rpg) back from injury. He’s played just 48 games this season, but you pair him with Siakam and 6-7 Scottie Barnes (15.3ppg, 7.5rpg, 3.5apg). Toronto won three of four against the Sixers including a 119-114 win on April 7. Joel Embiid will get his points, but Philadelphia has a mediocre bench and with Harden’s porous defense and Tobias Harris’ erratic production (with no Seth Curry), I’m going with: Toronto +165 to win the series.
Series will end in how many games?
Six +190
Series Correct Score (Best of 7)
Toronto 4-2 (+500)
6)Chicago Bulls vs. 3)Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago had a nice season, going 46-36. They had a defensive mindset early on, but injuries to Lonzo Ball (knee) and Alex Caruso (back) have held them back. That defense ranks 27th against the three-point shot (36.6%) and 26th in field goal defense (36.6%). They are taking on the defending champ Bucks, who had injury issues all season but wound up winning 51 games. They are capable of playing better defense (11th in FG %), but the key here is three-point shooting. They are making 36.6% from long range to rank 5th in the NBA and the Bulls rank 27th in defending the three. Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9ppg, 11.6rpg) steps up his game during playoff time. The addition of Grayson Allen (11.1ppg, 40.9% 3pt) gives them another perimeter shooter off the bench or as a starter. They just have so many weapons and a lot of depth. The Bulls lost four of their last five games and lost all four games to the Bucks this season. I’m taking Milwaukee (-1100). The better value is to take the Bucks in five games (+170).
Series will end in how many games?
Five games +170
Series Correct Score
Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 +180
7)Brooklyn Nets vs. 2)Boston Celtics
This is one of those series that on paper could be phenomenal. Boston has been one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch. But as good as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are, they are not as good as Kyrie Irving (27.4ppg, 5.8apg) and Kevin Durant (29.9ppg, 7.4rpg, 6.4apg). Those guys have rings and know how to take it to another level in the postseason. Add Andre Drummond in the middle to take up space and Seth Curry to provide three-point shooting and they can beat anybody. The problem for them is on the defensive end and they can really use Ben Simmons, who might play in Game 4, which would be in Brooklyn. Boston does rank first in Defensive Rating according to DunksandThrees.com thanks to Marcus Smart. But he can’t defend everyone. LaMarcus Aldridge and Patty Mills will also make a difference as former Spurs who have championship experience. I’ll take the Nets in this one.
Series winner: Nets +115
Series will end in how many games? Six games +190
Series Correct Score: Nets 4-2 +400
2)Memphis vs. 7)Minnesota
This should be another exciting series based on some great individual talent. Minnesota fought back to beat the Clippers in the play-in game to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18. Memphis has been one of the league’s biggest surprises. Ja Morant was an MVP candidate before he suffered a knee injury. He averaged 27.4 points, 6.7 assists and 5.7 rebounds on 49.3% shooting (34.4% 3pt). These teams split a four-game series and if you are Minnesota, you are using Patrick Beverley to attempt to slow down Morant. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.6ppg, 9.8rpg) had an embarrassing play-in game, scoring just 11 points before fouling out in 24 minutes. That won’t likely happen in this series though Memphis has two big bodies with Steven Adams (6-11, 265) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (6-11, 242) to bang with KAT. The Grizzlies are more than just Morant as Desmond Bane (18.2ppg) showed in leading the team when he was out and guys like Dillon Brooks (18.4ppg) and Brandon Clarke (10.4ppg, 5.3rpg) are exceptional defenders. Memphis ranks 3rd on Offensive Rating and 6th in Defensive Rating according to DunksandThrees.com.
Series winner: Grizzlies -300
Series will end in how many games? Five Games +220
Series Correct Score: Memphis 4-2 +360
4)Dallas vs. 5)Utah
The series odds for this one are not completely out as of press time and that’s understandable. Luka Doncic (28.4ppg, 9.1rpg, 8.7apg) will miss Game 1 due to a calf injury and they are also missing Tim Hardaway Jr (foot). That puts a lot of pressure on Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, because this is a guard-oriented team now. They don’t have a Kristaps Porzingis who can score inside or out. That gives Utah a huge advantage (these teams split all four meeting this season). The Jazz were a disappointing 49-33 as it looks as though Donovan Mitchell (25.9ppg) and Rudy Gobert (14.7rpg, 2.1bpg) can’t cope together. They are still a tough team defensively, ranking 9th in field goal percentage defense and 13th in three-point defense. Bojan Bogdanovic (18.1ppg, 38.7% 3pt) is the x-factor here as another long-range weapon along with Mike Conley (13.7ppg, 40.8% 3pt) and Jordan Clarkson (16ppg). The bottom line with this series is that Doncic is out Game 1 and we’re not sure if he plays the rest of the series or will be close to 100%.
Series Winner: Utah -300
3)Golden State vs. 6)Denver
This could be another potentially-great series, but once again, we’re waiting on an injury. Steph Curry (foot) is expected to play if his foot responds well in a scrimmage, but that’s not a good sign for the long-term. However, Denver has their own injury issues with Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Jamal Murray (knee) missing the rest of the season. Denver has taken three of the four games, but the first win game without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, the second win came without Green and third win came without all three. You can’t take away what Nikola Jokic has done for Denver. The former second-round pick leads in points (27.1), rebounds (13.8), assists (7.9), steals (1.5) and field goal percentage (58.3%). The problem is that he doesn’t have enough around him. Aaron Gordon (15ppg, 52% FG) will need a huge series for the Nuggets just to compete.
Series winner: Warriors -250
Series will end in how many games? Six Games +200
Series Correct Score: Golden State 4-2 +400
