NFL Team Draft Needs: AFC South
NFL Team Draft Needs
We're into April and that signifies one thing that matters in the sports world right now-the NFL Draft. The draft is scheduled to go from April 23-25. The first round will go off on Thursday at 8pmET, while rounds 2-3 will take place on Friday, April 24 at 7pmET. The draft will end on Saturday, April 25 with rounds 4-7.
The draft was originally supposed to be held in Las Vegas, but that is off due to effects of COVID-19. That means NFL general managers will have to rely mainly on scouting from the college football season and the NFL Combine instead of working out players individually. But these are difficult times so teams will need to adjust to the circumstances. We'll take a look at the NFL Draft over the next couple of weeks, starting with the needs of each NFL team, adjusted through NFL free agency. Let's take a look at the AFC South, one of the top divisions in the NFL, led by Houston and Tennessee.
AFC South
Houston Texans:
2019: 10-6
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 50-1
First pick: 40th overall
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: WR Randall Cobb (Dallas), RB David Johnson (trade-Arizona), DT Timmy Jernigan (Eagles), DB Jaylen Watkins (Chargers).
Key Losses: WR DeAndre Hopkins (Trade-Arizona), DT D.J. Reader (Cincinnati), CB Jonathan Joseph, S Mike Adams (retired).
Needs: Edge, WR, DT, OT
Outlook:
The Texans have had a bizarre off-season, highlighted by the trade of WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for RB David Johnson. The good news is that they received Arizona's 40th pick and a 2021 fourth-rounder, while surrendering their own fourth-round pick this season. They don't have a first-rounder, but they do have two second-round picks and eight overall, though they have three seventh-rounders. Bill O'Brien is the head coach and GM reportedly he wanted to deal Hopkins for awhile now. Why would he want to deal a 27-year old receiver that has caught 219 passes over the last two seasons? A contract holdout and the fact that he averaged just 11.2 yards per carry this season?
That leaves Deshaun Watson with Will Fuller and Kenny Stills at receiver and that means they could use some help, considering Fuller has struggled staying healthy and has averaged a little over 10 games a season in four years. They did add veteran Randall Cobb, who will turn 30 by the start of the season. Cobb caught 55 passes for 828 yards with three TDs. He's a slot receiver at this point of his career at 5-10, 195, but he's nowhere near the talent of a Hopkins.
Johnson could fill a void considering Carlos Hyde (1,070) was their leading rusher and is a free agent. Johnson had one great season in 2016 (1,239 yards, 80 catches for 879 yards), but since then, he's been on the decline mainly due to injuries. Last season, he had just 345 yards in nine starts, but did have 36 catches for 370 yards. That's something he should be able to help out, even if he can't be the prime back anymore.
At cornerback, the Texans are expected to lose veteran Jonathan Joseph. Vernon Hargreaves III was re-signed, but he's not the answer. Houston struggled against the pass last season, allowing 267 yards per game (29th) and also averaged just 1.9 sacks per game (26th). A pass rush helps a pass defense so it starts with getting pressure and having better corners.
In terms of a pass rush, DL J.J. Watt is 31 and has missed 34 games over the last four seasons. They can't just count on him to play a full season. LB Whitney Mercilus led the Texans with just 7.5 sacks and he'll be 30 next season.
Houston has a lot of needs heading into the draft and it starts on the defensive end. On offense, they could also use some help at guard. Zach Fulton is a solid pass protector, but he was rated as the worst run-blocking guard by Pro Football Focus last season.
Indianapolis Colts:
2019: 7-9
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 28-1
First pick: 34
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: QB Philip Rivers (Chargers), CB Xavier Rhodes (Vikings), DT DeForest Buckner (San Francisco).
Key Losses: TE Eric Ebron (Pittsburgh), OL Joe Haeg (Tampa Bay), WR Devin Funchess (Green Bay), QB Brian Hoyer (New England), CB Pierre Desir (Jets).
Needs: WR, TE, QB, G, DL
Outlook:
The Colts lost Andrew Luck last year after he decided to retire. Jacob Brissett had an unveven season going 5-2 with a 99.7 passer rating before suffering a knee injury. When he returned he went 2-5 with a 75.0 passer rating. The Colts really struggled in the passing game, averaging just 194 yards per game (30th) and 6.5 passing yards per attempt (30th). Enter Philip Rivers, who is coming off one of his worst season as a pro, passing for 4,615 yards with 23 TDs and 20 picks (sacked 34 times) with an 88.5 passer rating. But at 37, the Colts believe he can get back to his 2018 form or at least close with the Chargers, when he had a 105.5 passer rating (32 TDs, 12 INTs).
With the 38-year old Rivers now added, the Colts have to look at taking a quarterback in the draft. At 34, that's not likely, unless Jordan Love falls (not likely). He'd be a good quarterback to groom behind Rivers and they could trade Brissett (back to Patriots?), but he's not likely to be there. Indianapolis still needs a wide receiver with Devin Funchess gone and T.Y. Hilton coming off an injury-plagued season. There will be plenty of good receivers available at 34 and 44.
They also could use help at tight end as Eric Ebron is now gone in free agency and that leaves Jack Doyle. This is not a great tight end draft, so the Colts will not draft one in the first round. Players like Cole Kmet (Notre Dame) and Hunter Bryant (Washington) could be available in the second round.
Even though they aren't desperate for a cornerback, the Colts added veteran Xavier Rhodes from Minnesta. Rhodes was an elite corner, but he's on the decline at 29. At 6-1, 218, he's a big, who will replace Pierre Desir, who left in free agency.
Defense used to be a weakness, but thanks to a few strong drafts, they at least have become solid. They still need some defensive line help and to improve against the pass, where they allowed 249 yards per game in the air (23rd). The addition of DT DeForrest Buckner by trade from the 49ers for the 13th pick, was an enormous pickup. He's 6-7, 295 and can rush the passer with 19.5 sacks in the last two seasons.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
2019: 6-10
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 150-1
First pick: No. 9 and 20.
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: LB Joe Schobert (Cleveland), TE Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati), CB Rashaan Melvin (Detroit), DT Al Woods (Seattle).
Key Losses: QB Nick Foles (trade-Bears), OT Cedric Ogbuehi (Seattle), DE Calais Campbell (trade-Baltimore), CB A.J. Bouye (Denver).
Needs: G, Edge, WR, DL, OT, QB
Outlook:
What a strange off-season for GM David Caldwell and the Jags. They decided to admit their mistake of signing Nick Foles, the Super Bowl-winning quarterback, to a four-year, $88 million deal. Foles threw for 736 yards in an injury-plagued 2019 season. Caldwell ended up trading Foles to the Bears for a compensatory fourth-round pick. That means Gardner Minshew is the starter and he certainly showed some flashes last season with 3,271 yards, 21 TDs and just six picks (91.2 rating). He's a lot cheaper option than Foles and is just 23. The good news is that they picked up Tyler Eifert, the veteran tight end from Cincinnati, who has struggled to stay healthy over the years. He caught 43 passes for 436 yards with three TDs last season, his best numbers in 2015.
Jacksonville needs to give Minshew some help up front on the offensive line. They especially need help at offensive guard. Minshew is more athletic than Foles, which is one of the reasons they stuck with him late in the season. That's also because of their weakness at guard in pass protection.
The offense wasn't exactly explosive last season, averaging 18.8 points per game (26th) and just 6.8 yards per pass attempt (19th). They have the ninth and 20th pick, so scooping up a receiver like a Justin Jefferson from LSU might make some sense at 20. If they draft an offensive tackle in the first round, that wouldn't be a shocker considering Cam Robinson might not be the answer.
At cornerback, they Jags dealt away Jalen Ramsey last season and dealt away A.J. Bouye on March 3 came up with a fourth-round pick. So cornerback is also an issue, though they did pick up 30-year old veteran Rashaan Melvin from Detroit. He started 12 games last season and has played with six teams in his carer, starting 40 games in his career.
They also added LB Joe Schobert to a five-year deal, who had 133 tackles last season for Cleveland in 16 starts. He's a productive player, who had five sacks, five picks, four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries over the last two seasons.
Tennessee Titans
2019: 9-7
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 30-1
First pick: No. 29
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: DE Vic Beasley (Atlanta).
Key Losses: QB Marcus Mariota (Oakland), RB Dion Lewis (NY Giants), WR Tajae Sharpe (Giants), OT Jack Conklin (Denver), DT Jurrell Casey (Trade-Denver).
Needs: DL, Edge, OT, CB
Outlook:
The Titans were not very busy in the off-season, as they put a franchise tag on RB Derrick Henry and re-signed QB Ryan Tannehill. They traded away Jurrell Casey to Denver for a seventh-round pick. On paper, this looks like a horrible deal for the Titans, considering the fact that Casey is a perennial Pro Bowl player. This was a move made for cap relief and the fact that Casey will turn 31.
So adding a defensive lineman is paramount in the draft. The only real pick up for the Titans was Vic Beasley, the defensive end from the Falcons. Beasley is a pretty good pass rusher, having recorded 8.0 sacks last season with 42 tackles and two forced fumbles. He's a bit undersized at 6-3, 248 and has never quite reached his potential other than in 2016, when he produced 15.0 sacks and six forced fumbles.
Beasley will play outside linebacker in the 3-4 scheme. But they still need some help on the edges. OLB Harold Landry led the Titans with 9.0 sacks and he comes off the bench. The Titans ranked 13th with 2.7 sacks per game, but just 24th against the pass (255ypg). They also need some help at cornerback though they aren't bad. They could use a potential star as Malcolm Butler is solid and Logan Ryan (113 tackles) is a free agent.
Adding a corner, Edge or a defensive tackle at 29 makes sense. CB Jaylon Johnson from Utah and Edge Terrell Lewis from Alabama could be there.
