NFL Team Draft Needs: NFC South
NFL Team Draft Needs
NFL general managers will have to rely mainly on scouting from the college football season and the NFL Combine instead of working out players individually. But these are difficult times so teams will need to adjust to the circumstances. We'll take a look at the NFL Draft over the next couple of weeks, starting with the needs of each NFL team, adjusted through NFL free agency. For handicappers out there, we are going to keep you informed about all the moves made before the draft, the top picks each team has and what their Super Bowl odds are. Let's take a look at the NFC South, which gets a boost from some young quarterback named Tom Brady.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons:
2019: 7-9
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 40-1
First pick: No. 16
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: RB Todd Gurley (Rams), DE Dante Fowler (Rams), TE Hayden Hurst (Trade Baltimore),
Key Losses: TE Austin Hooper (Browns), OT Ty Sambarailo (Titans), OG Wes Schweitzer (Redskins), DE Adrian Clayborn (Browns), LB De'Vondre Campbell (Cardinals), OLB Vic Beasley (Titans), CB Desmond Trufant (Lions).
Needs: CB, Edge, DL, RB, LB, OT
Outlook:
Atlanta opened up the season at 1-7 last year and it looked like curtains for head coach Dan Quinn. They finished the season at 6-2 and saved Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff's job. It also impacted their draft selection, putting them in the middle of the pack at 16. Atlanta's struggles have mainly been on the defensive side, despite Quinn's former job as a defensive coordinator with Seattle.
Atlanta struggled last season on defense, allowing 24.9 points per game (23rd), 355.8 yards per game (20th), 245 yards per game in the air (22nd) and 1.8 sacks per game (29th). They really struggled at cornerback, especially in that 1-7 start, allowing an average of 31.3 points per game. Desmond Trufant was the number one corner, but he's now gone in free agency. Without Trufant, they are stuck with Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield. They played together last season after Trufant broke his forearm and did not play well. At 16, CB Kristian Fulton from LSU and C.J. Henderson from Florida are possibilities.
Another concern for the Falcons is finding a pass rusher. They did add DE Dante Fowler, who had 11.5 sacks with the Rams last season and is just 25. He'll replace Vic Beasley, who led the team with eight sacks last season. DE Adrian Clayborn had just four sacks last season and DE Tak McKinely, a first-round pick in 2017, has been a disappointment. They should be able to find an Edge rusher at 16. K'Lavon Chaisson from LSU appears to be the best option there. They could reach for A.J. Espenesa from Iowa or Yetur Gross-Matos from Penn State.
Offensively, the Falcons have talent, but should be able to score more than 24 points per game (13th). Part of the problem is at running back, where they averaged just 85 yards per game to rank 30th in the league. They need more balance for Matt Ryan and took a serious chance on RB Todd Gurley from the Rams. Davaonta Freeman (656 yards) is a free agent and appears to be on the downside. Gurley rushed for 857 yards and 12 TDs last season, but averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. He is just one season removed from rushing for 1,251 yards in 14 games and 17 TDs (4.9ypc). He's just 25 but going into his sixth season with injury concerns. Atlanta should draft a running back somewhere in the draft, not just as insurance, but to assist Gurley, who should be limited in his touches. He has 218 catches in five seasons and 73 games, so he was very involved in the Rams' offense.
The Falcons did send a second-round pick to Baltimore for backup tight end Hayden Hurst. With Austin Hooper gone in free agency, the addition of Hurst should be a solid replacement. Hurst is one of the fastest tight ends in the league and while blocking is not his forte', he should put up strong numbers playing with Ryan.
Most teams need help on the offensive line. It's just a position that is difficult to find. The Falcons could use help at guard as James Carpenter and Jamon Brown are pretty inept. They need second-year pro Chris Lindstrom to stay healthy at right guard, so drafting a left guard is a must. That won't happen at 16, but possibly in the second day of the draft.
Carolina Panthers
2019: 5-11
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 80-1
First pick: 7
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: QB Teddy Bridgewater (Saints), WR Robby Anderson (Jets), OT Russell Okung (Chargers), OG John Miller (Bengals), LB Tahir Whitehead (Raiders), DE Stephen Weatherly (Vikings), WR Pharoh Cooper (Cardinals), WR Seth Roberts (Ravens), QB P.J. Walker (XFL), TE Seth DeValve (Jaguars).
Key Losses: TE Greg Olsen (Seahawks), QB Kyle Allen (Redskins), OG Trai Turner (Chargers), DE Gerald McCoy (Cowboys), OG Greg Van Roten (Jets), DT Dontari Poe (Cowboys), LB Luke Kuechly (retired), DE Mario Addison (Bills), DE Vernon Butler (Bills), DE Bruce Irvin (Seahawks), CB James Bradberry (Giants).
Needs: CB, DL, LB, OG, S, QB
Outlook:
There are few teams who made as many changes as Carolina. It starts at the top with the firing of Ron Rivera and the hiring of Matt Rhule from Baylor. Adding a college head coach to a pro team is always a gamble. Now give him a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who hasn't been a consistent starter since 2016 and you are basically starting over. Bridgewater did start five games last season in New Orleans when Drew Brees was injured and threw for 1,384 yards with nine TDs and two picks. That short stint as a starter showed that he was ready and healthy again. He earned a three-year, $63 million deal, which also meant the end of the Cam Newton era, who is expected to be released in June.
With Bridgewater taking over, there is always going to be an injury risk. So adding a backup quarterback is going to be crucial. Last year's third-round pick Will Grier, looked horrible in two starts at the end of the season, turning the ball over five times and leading the Panthers to zero touchdowns in 17 drives. They could go the veteran route or add another quarterback, but definitely not at No. 7 in the first round. P.J. Walker, who had a strong showing in the XFL, might be the answer at backup quarterback, but they'll only find that out in training camp, whenever that will be.
Obviously, Bridgewater will have Christian McCaffrey to throw and hand the ball off to. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are a solid young duo at receiver. They also added Robbie Anderson, the former Jets receiver, who had 52 catches for 779 yards and five scores last season. Anderson is a tall, rangy receiver at 6-3, 190, who could be just what the doctor ordered for the Panthers as a potential number one receiver.
Drafting a receiver at No. 7 is not likely, but they could go offensive line. OT Mekhi Becton from Louisville and OT Tristan Wirfs from Iowa should be there. However, the bigger need is at guard and center. The Panthers were last in the league with 58 sacks in 2019. At center, Matt Paradis was a disaster. He allowed 47 pressures, which was the most for any center in the league. Rhule is a former offensive line coach, so there's no doubt he'll be looking to add some help for the interior of the line. John Miller, a former Bengals starter, could be in the picture at guard.
On defense, Carolina has to replace the great Luke Kuechly, who decided to retire after 28. He had the most tackles of any player since he entered the league in 2012, so this is a big loss. They picked up Tahir Whitehead from the Raiders, who produced 108 tackles last season and is pretty good against the run (not so good in pass coverage). Adding an inside linebacker at 7 probably won't happen, unless Isaiah Simmons is around.
At No. 7, the Panthers could also go with a defensive lineman. Their run defense was atrocious last season, allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 31 rushing touchdowns to finish last in the league. NT Dontari Poe is gone as is DE Gerald McCoy to the Cowboys. McCoy really declined so no big loss, but they have two holes to fill in the 3-4 defense. Stephen Weatherly (6-5, 265) is a rotation option, coming over from Minnesota as a part-time starter. But this is a spot where they really need to address and it starts in the draft. Derrick Brown from Auburn and Javon Kinlaw from South Carolina are two potential lineman who should be available at that early selection.
New Orleans Saints
2019: 13-3
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 14-1
First pick: No. 24
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: S Malcolm Jenkins (Eagles), WR Emmanuel Sanders (49ers).
Key Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers), OLB A.J. Klein (Bills), S Vonn Bell (Bengals).
Needs: LB, CB, QB, WR
Outlook:
The Saints' biggest moves in the offseason were to re-sign Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. This will likely be Brees' last season, but the bigger question is whether Hill is more than just an explosive jack-of-all-trades player or a "true" quarterback. Sean Payton may have other ideas, but even if they think Hill is the future, it doesn't hurt to check out another quarterback in the draft. Hill is no youngster at 29 and will turn 30 in late August, so if he takes over as starter next season, he'll be 31. They probably won't draft a quarterback at 24 unless a Jordan Love falls there and even if that happens, it's not likely.
If you have Brees for one more season and Michael Thomas at wide receiver (now Emmanuel Sanders), the window is nearly closed. Sanders is still an effective receiver at 33. Last season, he caught 66 passes for 869 yards with Denver and San Francisco. Grabbing a quarterback is the not first option, so they have to look at giving Brees the best available options. Adding another receiver early is not out of the question. Jalen Reagor from TCU, Chase Claypool from Notre Dame, Brandon Aiyuk from Arizona State are all options at 24, though a better value may be trading down.
Defense is always a priority with the Saints. They played well against the run, allowing just 91.3 yards per game (4th), but this is a passing league. They gave up 242 yards per game in the air (20th) and 333 yards per game overall (11th).
It starts at cornerback where Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore had off-seasons. Eli Apple is a free agent and not expected back. After Jeff Okudah, there is only one definite first-round pick at cornerback and that's C.J. Henderson, a big corner from Florida, who is very fast. Jeff Gladney from TCU and Trevon Diggs from Alabama are possible options in the first round.
Another need is at linebacker where they lost A.J. Klein is gone in free agency and is coming off a down season. Kiko Alonso is more of a part-time player and All-Pro OLB Demario Davis is a free agent next season. Drafting a linebacker at 24 makes sense. Kenneth Murray from Oklahoma and Patrick Queen from LSU could make some sense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019: 10-6
Super Bowl Odds (via Vegas Insider): 16-1
First pick: 14
Key Free Agent pickups and trades: QB Tom Brady (Patriots), OL Joe Haeg (Colts).
Key Losses: WR Breshard Perriman (Jets), DE Carl Nassib (Raiders).
Needs: OT, RB, WR, QB, G, S
Outlook:
Tampa Bay may not have made a lot of moves, but they made the loudest one. Some thought Tom Brady would leave the Patriots after this season, but how many believe it would be to Tampa? The West Coast made more sense, considering he grew up there, but Brady chose the young Bucs, who have a lot more weapons on offense that he had in Foxborough. Replacing Jameis Winston with Brady moved up Tampa Bay from as low as 40-1 Super Bowl odds to 16-1.
Brady (4,057 yds, 24 TDs, 8 INTs) may not be a great quarterback anymore, but he's not going to throw 30 interceptions as Winston did last season. When he sees a pass rush, he's going to go down unless he can get rid of the ball. But Brady is smart enough not to take many hits at 42 (will be 43 when the season starts). They could use a third receiver with Breshad Perriman gone in free agency. That's not going to happen at 14 because they have other needs including offensive tackle, running back and even quarterback.
Yes, with Winston likely gone, the Bucs need a quarterback for the future since Brady is not going to play forever. But if they want to go to the playoffs and advance, they need to protect Brady. They did pick up Joe Haeg from the Colts, but he was a backup last season. Left tackle Donovan Smith is average at best, while right tackle Demar Dotson is a free agent. They also might lose No. 3 tackle Josh Wells in free agency.
At 14, there are options at tackle including Jedrick Wills from Alabama and Andrew Thomas from Georgia. Picking a running back at 14 is not going to happen, but after that, there's a need to grab another back. They do have a decent young back in Ronald Jones (724 yards, 6 TDs) but averaged just 95 yards per game (24th) on the ground.
Defensively, Tampa Bay struggled last season, allowing 28 points per game (28th) and 270 yards in the air. They did great against the run (73.8ypg) to lead the league, but a lot of that was due to the fact that they couldn't stop the pass. They were a mess at cornerback and a lot of that was due to youth. They surrendered an incredible 3,176 passing yards to wide receivers. Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean all have potential, but they were exploited last season. Adding another corner high in the draft probably is the way to go. With Shaq Barrett (19.5 sacks) and Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks) rushing the passer, they can't blame lack of pressure on their passing woes.