NFL Week 14 Betting Recap
NFL Week 14 Betting Recap
We enter Week 15, so let’s take a look at some of the betting implications from last week’s games from Thursday-Monday and the playoff implications.
(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
NFL
Thursday, Dec. 8
LA RAMS (+13.5) over Las Vegas 17-16/Under 46.5
Coaching? Yes, coaching. How else can you explain the Rams winning this game with Baker Mayfield playing most of this game having just joined the Rams about 48 hours before after getting waived by the Panthers. How else can you explain the Raiders blowing the game after going up 13-3 at the half and 16-3 late in the game? Mayfield threw a 23-yard TD pass to Van Jefferson with 10 seconds left. The Raiders had two big penalties to allow the Rams to move 98 yards in eight plays. Mayfield completed 22 of 34 for 230 yards and ended a six-game losing streak. Derek Carr completed just 11 of 20 for 137 yards and dampened their playoff chances to fall to 5-8.
Sunday, Dec. 11
Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH 16-14/Under 36.5
Another ugly game between these two rivals, but with no Lamar Jackson (knee), this wasn’t expected to be a shootout. In fact, rookie Kenny Pickett left after the first quarter and Baltimore’s backup Tyler Huntley left late in the third quarter. Both were in concussion protocol, but while the Steelers still had an experienced backup in Mitch Trubisky, the Ravens had to turn to rookie Anthony Brown. But it was Trubisky, who was really good and then really bad. He completed 22 of 30 for 276 yards and a TD, but also threw three picks. Brown completed just 3 of 5, but it was JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who had not played together in nearly two years. They combined for 186 yards and a TD as the Ravens carved the Pittsburgh defense up for 215 yards on the ground. Baltimore improved to 9-4 on the season and Huntley was practicing early in the week, but hasn’t been cleared yet to play Saturday. The Steelers are all but of playoff contention at 5-8 and are in danger of suffering their first losing season under Mike Tomlin.
CINCINNATI (-4.5) over Cleveland 23-10/Under 47.5
The Bengals and the Ravens are pulling away in the AFC North and will face each other in Week 18. Beating the Browns meant they had to break a five-game losing streak against Cleveland. They also had to do without receiver Tyler Boyd (finger) and Tee Higgins (hamstring), who both suffered injuries. The Bengals led 13-3 at the half and had to do with defense and a running game. Joe Burrow completed just 9 of 21 at the half and wound up at 18 of 33 for 230 yards, while Joe Mixon returned from injury to rush for 96 yards, while star WR Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 119 yards and a TD. Deshaun Watson completed 26 0f 42 for 276 yards and a pick with a TD. But the Browns couldn’t run the ball as they were held to 71 yards rushing on 25 carries. Cincy DE Trey Hendrickson (broken wrist) will miss several weeks, but somehow played the fourth quarter with the injury.
NY Jets (+9.5) over BUFFALO 12-20/Under 43.5
Another ugly game. Mike White somehow got through this game throwing for 268 yards, while playing with a ribs injury. The Jets fell to 7-6, while the Bills improved to 10-3 despite producing just 14 first downs and throwing for 130 yards. The ugly Buffalo weather and the tough Bills’ defense held the Jets to just one TD. They made it a bit closer and covered the game down the stretch with a punt blocked out of the end zone for a safety and a 26-yard field goal from Greg Zuerlein with 1:18 left.
Jacksonville (+3.5) over TENNESSEE 36-22/Over 41.5
Two teams are heading in different directions. The Titans lost their third-straight game as Ryan Tannehill lost a fumble and had a pick and Jaguars cashed in with 20 points off of four turnovers (three fumbles, 1 INT). QB Trevor Lawrence had a career game with 368 passing yards and found tight end Evan Engram for 162 yards and two TDs. The AFC South is now nearly up for grabs as the Titans fell to 7-6 and the Jags moved to 5-8.
Houston (+14.5) over DALLAS 23-27/Under 52.5
Houston is 1-11-1 and Dallas Is now 10-3, but the Texans outplayed the Cowboys for three quarters. But when the Cowboys needed a 98-yard drive, Dak Prescott got the job done and Ezekiel Elliott ran it from two yads. Houston has now lost eight straight games, but they competed until the end. Dallas won despite turning the ball over three times, including two picks by Prescott. Jeff Driskel provided a lift with 38 yards passing and a TD and 36 rushing yards though Davis Mills did start the game.
Philadelphia (-10.5) over NY GIANTS 48-22/Over 41.5
This was a mismatch. The Eagles jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never really looked back. Jalen Hurts threw for 217 yards with two TDs and ran for 77 yards and a TD. While Miles Sanders ran for 144 yards and two scores. Philly earned a playoff berth not that it mattered at 12-1. For the Giants, at 7-5-1, they are now 0-3-1 in their last four games. Daniel Jones passed for 169 yards and a score and rushed for a score. For the Giants to beat the Eagles, they need all the defense and special teams to give the offense a boost. The defense allowed 253 rushing yards and a banged-up Saquon Barkley had just 28 yards on nine carries.
DETROIT (-1.5) over Minnesota 34-23/Over 51.5
At some point, the Vikings were going to come down to earth. Their defense was the culprit as they wasted a 425-yard, two-TD passing day from Kirk Cousins and 11 catches for 223 yards by Justin Jefferson. But a Dalvin Cook fumble and Jared Goff (330 yds, 3 TDs) proved to be Minnesota’s undoing. The Lions did everything they could as usual when it came to taking chances. Sometimes the gambles work and sometimes they don’t for head coach Dan Campbell. In this game, they worked. In the third quarter, C.J. Moored rushed for 42 yards on a fake punt and Goff hit Josh Reynolds for a five-yard TD strike to give the Lions a 21-7 lead.
DENVER (+7.5) over Kansas City 34-28/Over 42.5
Another odd game for road favorite bettors. The Chiefs scored the first five times this game, taking what looked like an insurmountable 27-0 lead with 4:32 left in the second quarter on a Willie Gay 47-yard interception return for a TD. But Russell Wilson hit Jerry Jeudy with a 5-yard TD with nine seconds left before the half to cut the lead in half at 27-14. Denver cut it to 27-21 and eventually outscored the Chiefs 14-7 in the second half to cover the spread. Patrick Mahomes had a bizarre game with 352 yards passing, with three TDs and three picks. RB Jerick McKinnon caught 7 passes for 112 yards and two TDs for KC. Wilson threw for 247 yards and three TDs, but did have that pick-six. He left in the fourth quarter with a concussion and was replaced by Brett Rypien, who threw a pick and had a TD pass. Denver was led defensively by Josey Jewell, who had two picks.
Carolina (+3.5) over SEATTLE, 30-24/Over 44.5
Here’s another example where firing a coach mid-season can sometimes help. Carolina is now 5-8 and one game off the lead in the NFC South under interim coach Steve Silks. They were able to take advantage of Seattle’s rush defense and amass 223 yards on the ground. Seattle, who fell to 7-6, dropped three of their last four and since they are in the NFC West, where San Francisco is pulling away at 9-4. Geno Smith threw two first half interceptions, but also had three TDs. Sam Darnold managed the game with just 120 yards passing, 30 yards rushing and one TD. D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard both rushed for 74 yards apiece. Carolina had the ball for 39:16 and dominated this game as the Seahawks scored a touchdown with 16 seconds left to make the score look decent.
SAN FRANCISO (-6.5) over Tampa Bay 35-7/Under 43.5
The Brock Purdy era started in San Francisco as he completed 16 of 21 for 185 yards with two TD, while Christian McCaffrey rushed for 119 yards and a score. Tom Brady was picked off twice and threw one late TD for a team that fell to 6-7. The problem for the Niners is that star WR Deebo Samuel suffered an ankle injury in the second quarter and will miss about 3-4 weeks. Purdy suffered an oblique injury and played through it. He’s listed as questionable for Thursday’s game with Seattle, but is expected to play.
LA CHARGERS (+2.5) over Miami, 23-17/Under 54.5
Justin Herbert threw for 367 yards to lead the Chargers in this one. He was sharp, completing 39 of 51 and also had a TD pass. Mike Williams returned to the lineup and caught six passes for 116 yards and a TD. Keenan Allen also had a big game with 12 catches for 92 yards. The Chargers improved to 7-6, while the Dolphins fell to 8-5. Miami is now two games behind Buffalo in the AFC East. It was a rough day for Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, who completed just 10 of 28 for 145 yards and a TD. Miami was unable to move the chains enough as they had the ball for just 20:22.
Monday, Dec. 12
New England (-3.5) over ARIZONA, 27-13/Over 39.5
This was a truly ugly game to start and got uglier when Kyle Murray injured his knee on the third play from scrimmage. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it would be season-ending. Colt McCoy came in to replace him and completed 27 of 40 for 246 yards with a pick, but the Cards still fell to 4-9. New England was able to put enough pressure on McCoy as they had six overall, including three from Josh Uche. LB Raekwon McMillan also scored a TD on a 23-yard fumble return on the third quarter that was the difference in the game. Mac Jones was 24 of 35 for 235 yards and a pick. Matthew Judon had 1.5 sacks to increase his total to 14.5, to tie for the NFL lead.
