NFL Week 3 Betting Recap
Injuries really took their toll in Week 3 and there were some strange plays that may have cost people betting pools, parlays, teasers and regular bets. Let’s take a look at each game and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 3 and beyond.
Looking for winners? Ben Hayes has them available after going 4-0 on Monday and 6-0 over his last six games in baseball. He has four more winners on Tuesday including his Best Bet, which is guaranteed to win!
(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, September 22, 2022
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Pittsburgh 29-17
This was an ugly Thursday night game between two backup-caliber quarterbacks. Fortunately for the Browns, Jacoby Brissett played much better than Mitch Trubisky. He completed 21 of 31 for 220 yards with two TDs and no picks. Trubisky completed 20 of 32 for just 207 yards and no TDs and picks. The problem was that Najee Harris ran for just 56 yards. Is it Kenny Pickett time yet in Pittsburgh? The issues on offense start on the offensive line and on defense, it’s the secondary. When you have a great pass rush, you can get past that but T.J. Watt (pec) is injured. Now Minkah Fitzpatrick (concussion) is questionable for their next game.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022
Baltimore (-1.5) over NEW ENGLAND 37-26
This was a wild game though the difference in this one was the play of Lamar Jackson, who passed for four TDs and ran for one. Mac Jones had a strong start, but got picked off three times. He threw for 321 yards and rushed for one TD. Devante Parker had a big game with five catches for 156 yards. However, the big story for New England is that Jones will miss 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain according to multiple reports. Baltimore allowed 447 yards total and defense is still a major issue for them. They lost DT Michael Pierce (arm) likely out for the season and with OLB Justin Houston (groin) potentially missing the Buffalo game on Sunday.
CAROLINA (+2.5) over New Orleans 22-14
The Panthers broke their nine-game losing streak as their defense shut out the Saints in the first three quarters. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 108 yards and Baker Mayfield managed the game with 170 yards. Unfortunately for New Orleans, the bad Jameis Winston showed up with two interceptions. Alvin Kamara returned from injury with 61 yards rushing and two catches, but also lost a fumble. The Saints could use TE Taysom Hill (ribs) back this week. WRs Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) are banged up. The Panthers avoided major injuries and the turnover bug. That’s why they finally won a game.
MIAMI (+4) over Buffalo 21-19
Another huge game in the heat in South Florida. Despite gaining 31 first down and 382 passing yards, the Bills did not handle the heat well. They had no running back with more than nine carries as Josh Allen had eight carries for 47 yards. Allen missed a throw in the end zone on fourth down to Isaiah McKenzie that would have probably won the game. His receivers were dealing with cramps throughout the game. The Bills could not take advantage of their opportunities as Matt Milano dropped a potential pick-six, Tyler Bass missed a field goal, Gabe Davis dropped a TD pass a missed TD pass by Josh Allen to Isaiah McKenzie. They also had a botched snap that cost them a field goal attempt right before the half. That was enough for Tau Tagovailoa to throw for 186 yards and a TD with no running game (41 yards) but also no turnovers, allowed them to get the win despite possessing the ball just 19:20. The bigger question for Miami is whether Tua (ankle/back) will play on Thursday night. Bad beat for Buffalo bettors? Without a doubt and for those who had the Over 52.5 when it was 14-all at the half?
TENNESSEE (+1.5) over Las Vegas 24-22
Tennessee dominated most of this game, but allowed the Raiders to come back in this one. The Titans held a 24-10 halftime lead and somehow held on. Derek Carr hit Mack Hollins for a 9-yard TD pass with 1:14 left but then he had his 2-point conversion attempt to Darren Waller get deflected and it was game over. Ryan Tannehill threw for 264 yards and Derrick Henry ran for 85 yards to get the Titans their first win of the season. The Raiders are in trouble at 0-3 and owner Mark Davis reportedly has already met with new coach Josh McDaniels. Carr did find Davante Adams for a touchdown in the second quarter, but he was held to just five catches for 36 yards.
Detroit (+5.5) over MINNESOTA 24-28
The Lions blew a 14-0 lead and had a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter. But Dan Campbell and the Lions are going to Lion. Jared Goff threw for 277 yards with a TD and a pick. Austin Seibert missed a 54-yard field goal with 1:10 left and the Vikes needed just three plays to go 56 yards to get the winning score. Kirk Cousins hit K.J. Osborn for a 28-yard TD pass with 45 seconds left to get the win. Dalvin Cook (shoulder) missed the fourth quarter and is listed as questionable for Sunday. He rushed for 96 yards and a TD, while Alexander Mattison also rushed for a score. The Lions held star WR Justin Jefferson to just three catches for 14 yards, but Osborn and Adam Thielen combined for 11 catches for 134 yards. The Vikes had just one lost fumble, while Detroit had the one interception.
INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) over Kansas City 20-17
Now this is taking a game when you are being handed it. Matt Ran hit Jelani Woods for a 12-yard TD pass with 24 seconds left to give the Colts a stunning first win. Patrick Mahomes was 13-2 in 15 career September starts coming into this one. He was good with 262 yards passing and one TD, but also had a pick. The key play happened with 4:48 left and a Kansas City 17-13 lead. Nick Bolton, who had two of the Chiefs’ five sacks, sacked Ryan to set up a fourth-and-14 in Indy’s territory. However, KC Pro Bowl DT Chris Jones was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for saying something to Ryan and that moved the ball to near midfield. Kansas City has a lot of issues right now, but it starts at kicker where backup Matt Ammendola missed an extra-point and a very makeable field goal. The Chiefs decided to fake a 42-yarder and that didn’t work out. So the hope is that Harrison Butker (ankle) returns this week or they will be going for two again this week.
Cincinnati (-6.5) over NY JETS 27-12
The Bengals were 0-2 coming into this game and were desperate for victory. Joe Burrow threw for 275 yards and three TDs against the Jets, who were abysmal. The key was the Cincy defense which sacked Joe Flacco four times and he lost two fumbles and threw two picks. He also threw 52 times, which is never a good formula for the Jets. Fortunately or unfortunately, Zach Wilson (knee) is expected to return this week. The Bengals’ passing game looked good, but Joe Mixon was held to just 24 yards on 12 carries. He’s considered questionable with an ankle injury, but is expected to play on Thursday.
Philadelphia (-6) over WASHINGTON 24-8
There’s not a lot to say about this one. The Eagles dominated as Jalen Hurts threw for 340 yards and three second-quarter touchdowns. Carson Wentz was sacked six times in the first half for Washington. The only negative for Philadelphia is that they cruised in the second half again without scoring a point. But their defense wasn’t going to surrender a 24-point lead in the second half. Washington has major issues on the offensive line and they can’t run the football as Antonio Gibson rushed for 38 yards on 12 carries with one late TD.
CHICAGO (-2.5) over Houston 23-20
The Texans got off to an early 10-0 lead and hung in like they seem to do lately, they couldn’t finish the job. The Bears received a huge game from running back Khalil Herbert, who ran for 157 yards and two TDs. Cairo Santos kicked a game-winning 30-yard field goal as time expired. Roquan Smith’s interception of Davis Mills with 1:05 left helped the Bears get the win. David Montgomery (ankle) is questionable so Herbert will likely get most of the carries this week. Can the Bears continue to win with the running game as Justin Fields (8-of-17, 2 INTs) continues to struggle? If they can run for 281 yards and hold teams to 92, they can win a lot of games. They play the Giants on the road this week.
Jacksonville (+7.5) over LA CHARGERS 38-10
What a shocker! The score certainly was but not the result considering the fact that Justin Herbert (ribs) wasn’t near 100% and WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) did not play. Now add the fact that WR Jalen Guyton (ACL) and LT Rashawn Slater (biceps) are now out for the year and OLB Joey Bosa (groin) might miss a few games, the Chargers are in trouble. Give credit to the Jags and new coach Doug Pederson, who has the team playing very strong defense. The Jags jumped out to a 13-0 lead and never really looked back. Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards with three TDs and no picks. Pederson has him playing much better in his second season. It helps to have a running game (James Robinson with 100 yards and a TD) and two free agent wide receiver pick ups in Zay Jones (10 catches for 85 yds, 1 TD) and Christian Kirk (6 catches for 72 yds, 1 TD).
Green Bay (+2) over TAMPA BAY 14-12
What a snoozer for an Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady matchup. The Packers jumped out to a 14-3 lead. They never scored again as Tampa Bay’s defense was dominant. They held Green Bay to just 67 yards rushing on 25 carries. But the Bucs ran for just 34 yards on 14 carries, so both aging quarterbacks had to come up big. Brady did at the end against Green Bay’s prevent defense late in the game, but a delay of game penalty cost them on the two-point conversion and the Packers held on for the defensive-minded win. Good news for Brady is that Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) will be back this week.
Atlanta (+2.5) over SEATTLE 27-23
The Falcons are 1-2, but they have covered all three games. In this matchup, it was about Cordarrelle Patterson, who rushed for 141 yards and a score. Marcus Mariota managed the game well with 229 yards passing, a rushing TD and a passing score, while Geno Smith passed for 325 yards and two TDs. Rookie Drake London caught the winning touchdown pass late in the third quarter. The oddest part of this game was that it was delayed for 8.5 minutes due to a drone that was unauthorized that flew over the field. When Atlanta is able to run the ball, they can compete with most teams. The Seahawks have lost two straight but had 420 yards of offense and just one turnover, but six penalties hampered their cause as did their putrid run defense.
LA Rams (-5.5) over ARIZONA 20-12
This was another borefest as the Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead and held on for the win and cover thanks to a dominant defense. Kyler Murray threw for 314 yards, while Marquise Brown caught 14 passes for 140 yards, but the Rams held Arizona to four Matt Prater field goals. Once again, Arizona (70 yards on 20 carries) can’t run the football as James Conner (ankle) wasn’t 100%, but did have 13 carries for 39 yards. WRs Rondale Moore (hamstring) and A.J. Green (knee) continue to have injury issues. The Cards desperately need DeAndre Hopkins (suspension for 6 games) back in the lineup. QB Matthew Stafford had no touchdown passes (249 yds) and no interceptions, but WR Cooper Kupp had a 20-yard TD run to key the offense.
DENVER (+2.5) over San Francisco 11-10
The unders continued on Sunday night as both offenses were pathetic in this game. Jimmy Garoppolo struggled in his first start this season, replacing the injured Trey Lance (ACL). He completed 18 of 29 for 211 yards with one TD and 11 INTs. Jeff Wilson rushed for 75 yards, but the 49ers didn’t run the ball well enough (88 yds) to win this game. Field position played a huge role in this game as Denver punter Corliss Waltman kept pinning the ball deep the San Francisco’s territory. Jimmy G. stepped out of the end zone for a safety on one play and Wilson fumbled in the final minutes for the 49ers. Russell Wilson (184 yds) certainly didn’t cook, but he drove them for the winning and their only TD on a Melvin Gordon III 1-yard run with 4:10 left. This was not a great beat for San Francisco bettors, but what really hurt them was when Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams suffered a high ankle sprain that will keep him out at least month. That took place on the safety with 9:53 left in the third quarter.
Monday, September 27, 2022
Dallas (+1.5) over NY GIANTS 23-16
Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to the road win against a 2-0 Giants’ team. Rush took care of the football again, completing 21 of 31 for 215 yards with one TD but the key for Dallas was a dominant ground game (176 yards). Neither team stopped the run as the Giants had a big game from Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 81 yards with a 36-yard TD and QB Daniel Jones ran for 79. But as a passer, he was inconsistent, throwing for 196 yards on just 20-of-37 with no TDs and a pick. Bad news for the Giants was when top WR Sterling Shepard (5 catches for 49 yards) came up limping with no contact late in the game and head coach Brian Daboll announced Tuesday that he had suffered a torn ACL.
