NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
Injuries continue to take their toll in Week 4 and there were some strange plays that may have cost people betting pools, parlays, teasers and regular bets. Let’s take a look at each game and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 4 and beyond.
(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, September 29, 2022
CINCINNATI (-4) over Miami 27-15
The biggest story in this game was what happened in the second quarter. Tua Tagovailoa sustained head and neck injuries after coming off a “back injury” suffered in the previous game. That occurred with 5:57 left in the second quarter and with the Dolphins at midfield after Tua was sacked. Teddy Bridgewater came in and threw a 16-yard pass to get the ball to the Cincy 34. Jason Sanders’ 52-yard FG attempt was blocked and the Bengals scored a TD on the next possession. Could the Dolphins have covered the game if Tagovailoa doesn’t get hurt? It’s certainly possible and while it’s part of the game it is a bad beat for Miami bettors and the team itself.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022
ATLANTA (+1) OVER Cleveland 23-20
Atlanta jumped out to a 10-0 lead after the Browns decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 to start the game near the Falcons’ goal line instead of taking the easy three points. They eventually tied it but they couldn’t get over the hump. The problem was the run defense, which was lacking DE Myles Garrett after a car accident and DE Jadeveon Clowney. Atlanta ran for 202 yards and that was without RB Cordarelle Patterson hampered by a knee injury (he would end up on the IR). Nick Chubb had 118 yards rushing and a score. QB Jacob Brissett threw for 234 yards but no TDs and had pick. Marcus Mariota had a terrible game passing (7 of 19 for 139 yds, 1 INT). Not really a bad beat though it should gone over and Cleveland with 35:44 of possession, didn’t get the desired result.
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 over Jacksonville 29-21
If you took the Jags, you had to feel good up 14-0 in the first quarter. Then reality struck as the Eagles scored 29 straight points to take a commanding lead. This could be considered a bad beat, because not only did the Jags blow a two touchdown lead but QB Trevor Lawrence turned the ball over five times (1 INT, four fumbles). But the Jags’ pick was a good one. You have former Eagles’ coach Doug Pederson going up against his former team and you lose by a ½ point or a point with the QB turning the ball over five times? Rough day for Jacksonville bettors.
LA Chargers (-5.5) over Houston 34-24
Give the Chargers credit because with all the injuries they’ve had to overcome at receiver (Keenan Allen), on the offensive line and at QB, Justin Herbert went out and completed 27 of 39 for 340 yards with two TDs. Austin Ekeler had a solid game at RB with 60 yards and two rushing TDs, but also had six catches for 49 yards and a TD. WR Mike Williams feasted on the Texans with 7 catches for 120 yards. For Houston bettors, the issue is an atrocious defense which allowed 419 yards of offense to a very banged-up team. The total went over as the Chargers played softer in the second half after getting up 27-7. Davis Mills had two more interceptions and now has four on the league with an 80.4 rating. Check status on Allen possibly playing this week.
Tennessee (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS 24-17
Oh, the seat is getting hotter in Indiana for Frank Reich and GM Chris Ballard. It’s hard to completely blame QB Matt Ryan for this loss, because he threw for 356 yards with two TDs and a pick with a lost fumble. But the Colts continue to struggle to replace Andrew Luck-they haven’t. They were down 24-3 to a team with limited weapons. The defense also continues to struggle as star LB Shaq Leonard (nose/concussion) finally gets a chance to play and gets injured. He will be out for at least this week. They also lost RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle), who rushed for just 42 yards on 20 carries and he is likely to miss Thursday’s game. Bad offensive line play with a 37-year old QB is never a good combination. The good news for the Titans is that Derrick Henry (114 yds, 1 TD) had a big game. The bad news is that rookie WR Treylon Burks (toe) was injured and the passing game is not anything to brag about right now (27th in the NFL).
DALLAS (-3) over Washington 25-10
Speaking of hotseats, how about them Commanders! Dallas methodically took them apart on Sunday at home. They were up by just five, 15-10 heading into the fourth quarter when QB Cooper Rush hit Cedee Lamb for a 30-yard TD strike and it was over. The story for Dallas is their terrific defense, which held Carson Wentz to just 170 yards passing with one TD and two picks. They sacked him just twice, which is a small victory for Washington and their beleaguered offensive line. Dak Prescott is considered questionable for this week, but he’s not likely to play.
NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Chicago 20-12
Let’s see. The Giants lose QB Daniel Jones to an ankle injury in the third quarter and backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion in the fourth. Jones, who rushed for 68 yards and passed for 71, returned in the fourth quarter on one good ankle. The bottom line is that the Bears have no passing game as Justin Field wound up with 11 of 22 for 174 yards 52 rushing yards. They do have a running attack, but you need more. The Giants will need a backup QB when they meet Green Bay in London as Jones is expected to play. That means they’ll need another big day from Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 146 yards against the Bears.
Seattle (+3.5) over DETROIT 48-45
If you had the Over 47.5 in this one, you were a big winner. There was no defense played in this one, but it makes you wonder how the Lions can miss star WR Amon-Ra. St. Brown and RB D’Andre Swift due to injury, yet manage to score 45 points. Jamaal Williams stepped in for Swift and rushed for 108 yards and two TDs. TE T.J. Hockenson had a career game with 8 catches for 179 yards and two TDs. But the Lions’ defense allowed Geno Smith to complete 23 of 30 for 329 yards including 149 to D.K. Metcalf. Rashaad Penny also had a huge game with 151 rushing yards and two scores.
NY Jets (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
The Mitch Trubisky era was short-lived in Pittsburgh. Rookie Kenny Pickett took over in the second half when the Steelers were trailing 10-6 and managed to throw three picks and run for two TDs. Second-year QB Zach Wilson completed just 18 of 36 for 252 yards with one TD and two picks. He also caught a TD pass on a gimmick play from Braxton Berrios. The issues for Pittsburgh starts on defense with Mikah Fitzpatrick dealing with a knee injury and DT Cameron Heyward having elbow and ankle issues. They are both listed as questionable, but if they don’t have both and with T.J. Watt (pec) still out and a rookie QB, Mike Tomlin’s streak of not ever having coached a losing team is in jeopardy. The Jets have some major issues on the O-line and they’ll have to live with more Wilson mistakes, but there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
BALTIMORE (+3.5/3) over Buffalo 20-23
If you had the push with Baltimore, you felt screwed because the Ravens once again blew another 17-point second-half lead at home (Miami). Baltimore had a 20-3 lead, was held scoreless in the second half and decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 from the Bills’ 2-yard line instead of kicking the gimme field goal to go up by three minutes left. However, Jordan Poyer picked off Lamar Jackson in the end zone, giving the Bills the ball on their own 20-yard line and they were able to get into easy field goal position for the game-winning FG from Tyler Bass. Neither quarterback played well in the rain, but Josh Allen got the job done, completing 19 of 36 for 213 yards with 70 rushing yards and two total TDs. Jackson completed 20 of 29 for 144 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs and rushed for 73 yards. Baltimore may have lost WR Rashod Bateman (foot) for awhile and speedy RB Justice Hill suffered a hamstring injury. Crazy game, but the Bills bounced back from a loss to Miami to grab a tough road win.
Arizona (+1) over CAROLINA 26-16
This was an ugly game between a bad Carolina team that amassed just 11 first downs. Yet, they had a quick 10-3 lead thanks to a 33-yard interception return for a TD by Frankie Luvu. The Panthers did not score an offensive TD until Christian McCaffrey caught a 13-yard pass from Baker Mayfield. Kyler Murray (207 yds passing 2 total TDs) didn’t have a great game, but the Cardinals were able to rush for 132 yards and keep possession of the ball for 38:35. The Cards desperately need receiving help until DeAndre Hopkins returns from his six-game suspension. The Panthers are a mess and while Mayfield might get replaced eventually, Sam Darnold (ankle) is not close to being ready to returning from the IR.
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over New England 27-24ot
This was one heck of a performance by the Patriots with starting QBV Mac Jones (ankle) out and then backup Brian Hoyer (head) was out early on. Rookie Bailey Zappe completed 10 of 15 for 99 yards and a 25-yard TD to DeVante Parker in the third quarter. But the Pats were able to compete because they were able to run the ball for 167 yards on 33 carries. Damien Harris had 86 yards and a TD, while Rhamondre Stevenson added 66 yards. Aaron Rodgers had a subpar day that included getting picked off by Jack Jones for a 40-yard pick-six with 13 seconds left in the first half. Aaron Jones led the Pack on the ground with 110 yards and Allen Lazard caught six passes for 166 yards.
LAS VEGAS (-2.5) over Denver 32-23
So the Raiders finally get their first win and the Broncos dropped what looked like a winnable game. If you had the Under 45, it was destined to go over in the second quarter when Amik Robertson scooped up a Melvin Gordon fumble and returned it 68 yards for a TD. The Raiders scored 16 points in the second quarter. Russell Wilson completed 17 of 25 for 237 yards and two TDs, but they had no running game thanks to Javonte Williams suffering a torn ACL. Gordon will have to pick up the slack for the Broncos, though he’s now dealing with a neck injury and is listed as questionable. Josh Jacobs had a big game for the Raiders with a career-high 144 yards and two TDs. He took the pressure off of Derek Carr, who completed 21 of 34 for 188 yards. Davante Adams was the recipient of 13 targets and nine catches for 101 yards.
Kansas City (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY 41-31
The Chiefs scored 28 points in the first half and held on to a 41-31 win in a surprisingly high-scoring game. Tampa Bay just said screw the run, Tom Brady is going to chuck the ball 52 times for 385 yards and three TDs. They run for just three yards on six carries. At least Mike Evans returned from a one-game suspension to catch 8 passes for 103 yards and two TDs. Patrick Mahomes threw for 3 TDs and 249 yards with a pick. The surprise was that their running game amassed for 189 yards against a usually very strong Bucs’ run defense. The Bucs could use some help at tight end now that Cameron Brate (concussion) is likely to miss some time.
Monday, October 3, 2022
SAN FRANCISCO (-2) over LA Rams 24-9
So Jimmy Garoppolo bounced back on Monday night from a terrible Sunday night performance against Denver to completed 16 of 237 for 239 yards and a TD. He was helped out by Jeff Wilson Jr., who had 74 yards and a TD. But it was the Niners defense that controlled this game, holding the Rams to just 257 yards of offense. Sean McVay just seems to have troubles against that San Francisco defense in the regular season, now losing seven straight. Matthew Stafford needs another target aside from Cooper Kupp he can rely on.
