Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Preview, Prediction and Odds - 8/21/21
It’s an interconference clash on the hardwood as a pair of WNBA teams on opposite sides of the playoff cut line in Hotlanta. The Phoenix Mercury are on the road as they travel to face the Atlanta Dream Saturday afternoon. Phoenix dropped Washington 77-64 at home in their most recent contest Thursday night. Atlanta was swept in a two-game road set against Los Angeles, losing 66-64 in the second game of the series Thursday night. The Mercury enters this one winners of seven straight meetings and nine of the last 10 matchups in the series. That includes a 92-81 home victory in the first meeting this season August 15.
Phoenix Mercury Trying to Ride Recent Momentum
Phoenix won their third straight coming out of the Olympic break and have won five of their last six games after downing Washington Thursday. The Mercury improved to 12-10 on the season and held the fifth seed in the WNBA playoff picture entering Friday, 4.5 games behind the Aces for the top spot and three games clear of the ninth-place Sparks to remain in the playoff picture. Phoenix took advantage of another second-half meltdown by Washington as the Mercury trailed by four after the opening quarter and by five at the half before making their move. The Mercury outscored the Mystics 21-9 in the third quarter to take a seven-point lead and never were challenged in the final stanza en route to the win. Phoenix shot 51.6% from the field, including four of 14 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 44-34. Brittney Griner led the Mercury with 30 points, 12 rebounds and five assists in the win.
The Mercury are 8th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 80.4 points per game. Phoenix is fourth in rebounding (36.5 rebounds) per contest and stand sixth in the league by handing out 19.1 assists a night. The Mercury are sixth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80.6 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is second on the Mercury in scoring with 18.2 points plus five assists a night. Brittney Griner (20.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.5 points, 4.5 assists) and Brianna Turner (7.4 points, 9.3 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (nine points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Alanna Smith are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is fifth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.4% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 9th in three-pointers per game (6.7 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (31.4%) this season. Phoenix is 8th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 79.6% of their chances on the year.
Atlanta Dream Cratering in Standings
Atlanta lost their seventh straight game and their 14th in the last 16 games as they were swept in a two-game series to Los Angeles on the road. The Dream dropped to 6-16 on the season and stand 11th in the WNBA playoff picture, 3.5 games behind the Wings for the final playoff spot. Atlanta trailed by seven after the opening quarter, by eight at the half and by 13 after three quarters before mounting a furious comeback. The Dream tied the game at 64 with 32.8 seconds to play on a Crystal Bradford three-pointer but lost on a putback bucket with 0.1 seconds to play. Atlanta shot 39.4% from the field, including eight of 25 from three-point range, and turned the ball over 18 times in the loss. Courtney Williams led the Dream with 23 points and 11 rebounds in the loss.
The Dream is 6th in the league in scoring offense coming into this contest as they average 81.6 points a game this season. Atlanta is 10th in the league in rebounding (34 boards a night) and stands 8th in assists with an average of 18.2 per game. The Dream are 12th in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 87.2 points a contest this season. Tiffany Hayes is one of four players for the Dream scoring in double figures as she puts up 16.2 points a night. Chennedy Carter contributes 14.2 points plus 3.3 assists per contest. Odyssey Sims, Crystal Bradford, Tianna Hawkins, Elizabeth Williams, Monique Billings, Courtney Williams (16.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists), Aari McDonald, Cheyenne Parker (10.2 points, 4.5 boards), Candice Dupree and Shekinna Strickland are other key rotation pieces for coach Darius Taylor. The Dream are 9th in field goal percentage as they shoot 41.8% from the floor as a team. Atlanta stands 10th in threes per game (6.6) and 10th in three-point percentage as they hit 32.3% of their long-range attempts. The Dream is 12th in the league in free throw percentage as they shoot 71.4% from the stripe as a team this year. Carter is suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team during the game against the Aces July 4. Parker is out for the year as she announced she was pregnant last month.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix has gotten hot of late as they’ve won all three of their games since the Olympic break and five of their previous six going back before the break. The Mercury now are two games above .500 and they beat the Dream by double figures at home in their first meeting earlier this week. Atlanta has struggled to put anything together when it comes to having success on the defensive end of the floor. Hayes returned in Thursday’s game and went scoreless in 16 minutes for the Dream. While she likely will improve as she knocks the rust off and gets back into game form, the fact remains that the Dream have dropped 14 of 16 games while the Mercury are hot right now. Griner, Taurasi and Diggins-Smith keep the Mercury rolling as they make it four straight wins.
Total: Over
While Atlanta turned in a stellar defensive outing in their game Thursday night, one has to point out that it came against the Sparks, who are the league’s worst scoring offense. When we saw Atlanta play Phoenix on the road six days ago, they gave up 92 points in a game that saw the teams combine for 173 points, going over the projected total by nine points. That marked the second straight time the teams went over the mark. Atlanta has seen the over go 13-9 in their games this season. In their home games, the Dream have seen an average of 164.9 points per game. Phoenix runs all over Atlanta and helps push this over the total.
