Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/29/21
A pair of Western Conference teams take the floor in the Lone Star State in WNBA action. The Phoenix Mercury are on the road as they make the trip to take on the Dallas Wings Saturday night. Phoenix was knocked off 85-79 at home by Las Vegas in their previous contest Wednesday night. Dallas was outgunned 101-95 on the road by Atlanta Thursday night in their most recent game. The teams split two meetings in the bubble last season with the “road” team prevailing in each contest. In the most recent meeting, it was the Wings earning a 95-89 victory on August 16, 2020. The teams have split the previous eight meetings.
Phoenix Mercury Hoping to Get Back in Win Column
Phoenix dropped their second straight game as they were unable to hold on late against the Aces in their previous contest. The Mercury dropped to 2-3 on the year and entered Friday holding the seventh seed in the WNBA playoff picture. Against Las Vegas, Phoenix was even after one quarter, trailed by as many as eight in the first half and cut the deficit to one at intermission. The Mercury trailed by two after three quarters only to rally for a four-point edge with 4:55 to play. Phoenix held a one-point lead with 1:23 to play but gave up a game-ending 7-0 run to take the loss. The Mercury shot 46.4% from the field, including five of 17 from three-point range, and were beaten 36-33 on the glass. Brittney Griner led Phoenix with 27 points and 11 rebounds in the loss.
The Mercury are eighth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 78.4 points per game. Phoenix is eighth in rebounding (35.2 rebounds) per contest and stand fifth in the league by handing out 19.6 assists a night. The Mercury are fifth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.4 points plus 5.6 assists a night. Brittney Griner (16 points, 8.4 rebounds, three blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.8 points, 3.8 assists) and Brianna Turner (7.4 points, 8.8 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse, Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is sixth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is tied for sixth in three-pointers per game (6.6 per game) and ninth in three-point shooting (30%) this season. Phoenix is 7th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 77.2% of their chances on the year. Taurasi was announced to have suffered a fractured sternum that she sustained May 16 against the Sun and is out. She is expected to miss at least four weeks.
Dallas Wings Look to Snap Slide
Dallas suffered their third straight loss after opening the year with a victory as they were knocked off in a high-scoring affair in Atlanta against the Dream. The Wings entered Friday ninth in the league, putting them on the outside looking in for the playoff picture, half a game behind the Mystics for the final spot. Dallas trailed by two after the opening quarter and never got back to even after Atlanta used a 7-0 run to break a 38-38 tie in the second quarter. The closest that the Wings would get after that was three as the Dream had an answer each time. Dallas shot 45.5% from the field, including 10 of 25 from three-point range, but lost the battle of the boards 45-32. Marina Mabrey and Arike Ogunbowale each had 24 points to pace the Wings in a losing effort.
The Wings come into this one first in the league in scoring with 91.8 points per game this season. Dallas is third in rebounding (39.3 boards per contest) but rank eighth in the league in assists with 18.5 per game. The Wings are struggling defensively, ranking 11th by allowing 90 points per contest. Allisha Gray is second on the team by averaging 23 points, six rebounds and five assists per game on the year. Arike Ogunbowale (23.3 points, three rebounds, three assists), Marina Mabrey (20.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists), Isabelle Harrison (11.3 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Kayla Thornton (12.5 points, 10.5 rebounds) are all capable scoring options as well. Charli Collier, Tyasha Harris, Chelsea Dungee, Awak Kuier, Moriah Jefferson, Dana Evans, Kristine Anigwe and Bella Alarie all can be looked to for minutes for coach Brian Agler. The Wings are second in the league in field goal percentage as they hit 46.1% as a team. Dallas is tied for fourth in three-pointers per game (8.8) and stand fourth in the league in three-point shooting as they hit 37.2% from long range. The Wings are fifth in free throw shooting as they convert 80% of their chances at the stripe. Gray is out as she is with Team USA for the three-on-three qualifying tournament in Graz, Austria in an effort to qualify for the Olympics. She is expected to return in early June. Satou Sabally is taking part as well as a member of Team Germany.
Pick: Dallas Wings
This is a matchup of a pair of teams that clearly aren’t whole given what we’d expect for their rotations. The Mercury clearly misses Taurasi, who is a scoring threat and a stabilizing force in the playmaking department. Dallas is missing Gray and Sabally while Kuier just made her season debut in the game against Atlanta Thursday night. Still, even without Gray and Sabally, we’ve seen the Wings have no problem putting points on the board. They just have to find a way to clamp down somewhat on the defensive end of the floor. Phoenix has to put things together for a full 40 minutes instead of stretches of games. Until they do that, you have to fade them. Take the Wings at home as they get back in the win column.
Total: Over
Phoenix comes into this game fifth in the league in scoring defense on the season but their bigger problem has been offensively. The Mercury have seen the under hit in four of their five games this season but they are facing the league’s top scoring offense. Dallas has no problem racking up points: while the over is just 2-2 on the year, both of the games that went under for the Wings missed the mark by just half a point. We know Dallas can score and we know they have problems slowing the opposition from putting points on the board. The over has hit in the last three matchups: this is a prime chance for the Mercury to get their offense going and that helps this one over the mark.
