Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Preview, Prediction and Odds - 7/11/21
It’s a Western Conference matchup on the WNBA hardwood in the Pacific Northwest. The Phoenix Mercury are on the road as they make the trip to face the Seattle Storm Sunday evening to close a home-and-home series. In the first half of the home-and-home set Friday night, it was Phoenix taking an 85-77 home victory to ensure no worse than a split of the two-game set. That snapped a stretch where Seattle had won three straight matchups and five of the previous six. Will the Storm strike and get back in the win column or will the Mercury find a way to earn a road win to sweep the series here?
Phoenix Mercury Trying to Finish First Half Strong
Phoenix won their second straight and fourth in the last six games as they earned a home win over Seattle in their previous contest. The Mercury improved to 9-9 on the season and entered Saturday holding the seventh seed in the WNBA playoff picture, 1.5 games clear of ninth-place Washington to remain on the right side of the cut line. On Friday night, Phoenix trailed by six early but cut the deficit to two after one quarter of play. The Mercury led by five at the half and took the lead for good with a 6-0 run at the end of the third and start of the fourth quarters. Phoenix didn’t let Seattle closer than two the rest of the way en route to the victory. The Mercury shot 47.1% from the field, including four of 18 from three-point range, and held a 39-36 edge on the glass. Brittney Griner led Phoenix with 29 points and 15 rebounds in the victory.
The Mercury are 9th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 80.1 points per game. Phoenix is sixth in rebounding (35.9 rebounds) per contest and stand seventh in the league by handing out 18.5 assists a night. The Mercury are seventh in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 81.5 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is second on the Mercury in scoring with 19.2 points plus 5.3 assists a night. Brittney Griner (20.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.1 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.6 points, four assists) and Brianna Turner (7.1 points, 8.7 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (8.7 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Alanna Smith are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is seventh in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.9% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 10th in three-pointers per game (6.6 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (30.6%) this season. Phoenix is 8th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 79.7% of their chances on the year. Taurasi (hip) missed the last two games and is questionable here. Cunningham (concussion) left Friday’s game and her status for this one is questionable. Smith (personal) is out indefinitely, which could leave the Mercury a bit shorthanded for this contest.
Seattle Storm Looking to Maintain WNBA’s Top Record
Seattle saw their three-game win streak snapped as they were dropped by Phoenix on the road in the opening game of this home-and-home set. Despite the loss, the Storm clinched a spot in the Commissioner’s Cup against Connecticut August 12. They own the league’s best record at 15-5 and stood one game ahead of second-place Las Vegas. In Friday’s game, Seattle led 10-4 early and held a two-point edge after the opening quarter only to trail by five at the half. The third quarter was a back-and-forth affair before the Mercury used a 6-0 run to take a 62-57 lead with 9:48 to play. Seattle couldn’t get closer than two after that and went down in defeat. The Storm shot 38.2% from the field, including nine of 26 from beyond the arc, and hit 11 of 12 free throws in the loss. Jewell Loyd led Seattle with 16 points in the loss.
The Storm comes into this contest second in the league in scoring offense with an average of 86.7 points per game. Seattle is fourth in rebounding (36.6 boards per contest) and is first in the league in assists by dishing out 21.9 dimes per night this year. The Storm are 4th in scoring defense as they allow 79.9 points a game so far this year. Breanna Stewart leads the team with 21.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. Jewell Loyd (18 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists) and Sue Bird (10.8 points, 5.7 assists) are solid secondary options. Coach Noelle Quinn has a solid group to work with as her team can get production from Katie Lou Samuelson, Jordin Canada, Candice Dupree, Ezi Magbegor, Stephanie Talbot, Kennedy Burke, Epiphanny Prince and Kiana Williams. The Storm are third in the league in field goal percentage as they convert 45.5% of their shots from the floor this year. Seattle is third in the league in three-point field goals made per game (9.1) and first in three-point percentage as they knock down 39.4% percent from beyond the arc. The Storm are above average at the line, ranking third in the league by converting 83.2% of their chances. Mikiah Herbert Harrington is out for the year as she is pregnant. Talbot and Magbegor are both with the Australian national team in preparation for the Tokyo Olympics and will miss this one.
Pick: Seattle Storm
Phoenix won their fourth straight game as they prevailed in the front half of this home-and-home set but injuries are taking a toll. If Taurasi and Cunningham both miss the game, it will make things very difficult for the Mercury as Diggins-Smith will have to take on ballhandling duties in addition to her shooting role. Seattle is missing a couple of their role players but they have quality depth and a solid 1-2 punch in Stewart and Loyd on the offensive end of the floor. Phoenix has played much better on the road (6-2) than at home (3-7), which will allow them to keep it close but in the end, the Storm takes care of business to get the victory here.
Total: Under
Both teams have seen the under hit more often than not in their contests this season. The Mercury have seen the under hit in nine of their 18 games with one push on the year. Meanwhile, Seattle has seen the under hit in 11 of their 20 games this year. In the game Friday night, the teams combined for 162 points, which fell 2.5 points short of the 164.5-point total that was set by the books. That continued a trend in recent meetings between these teams. In the last 10 matchups, the under has posted a solid 8-1-1 mark with five of those unders coming in by double figures. With Taurasi questionable and the Storm missing some depth, this one ends up under the mark.
