Post-2022-23 NBA Predictions Review
Post-2022-23 NBA Predictions Review: How did I stack up?
Eastern Conference
W L Win Total O/U Outcome
1.Milwaukee 57 - 25 53.5 (OVER) 58-24 (OVER)
2.Boston 53 - 29 53.5 (UNDER) 57-25 (OVER)
3.Philadelphia 51 - 31 50.5 (OVER) 54-28 (OVER)
4.Cleveland 50 - 32 47.5 (OVER) 51-31 (OVER)
5.Brooklyn 48 - 34 50.5 (UNDER) 45-37 (UNDER)
6.Miami 45 - 37 48.5 (UNDER) 44-38 (UNDER)
7.Atlanta 44 - 38 45.5 (UNDER) 41-41 (UNDER)
8.Toronto 42 - 40 26.5 (OVER) 41-41 (OVER)
9.Chicago 41 - 41 41.5 (UNDER) 40-42 (UNDER)
10.New York 40 - 42 38.5 (OVER) 47-35 (OVER)
11.Orlando 37 - 45 26.5 (OVER) 34-48 (OVER)
12.Washington 35 - 47 35.5 (UNDER) 35-47 (UNDER)
13.Detroit 30 - 52 29.5 (OVER) 17-65 (UNDER)
14.Charlotte 25 - 57 36.5 (UNDER) 27-55 (UNDER)
15.Indiana 22 - 60 22.5 (UNDER) 35-47 (OVER)
So the Eastern Conference was my playground this year. I hit on 13 of 15 Over/Under predictions, losing out on Detroit and Indiana. I didn’t anticipate Detroit losing their best player, Cade Cunningham, for much of the season. The Pistons were a major disappointment but they have the pieces to improve. As for the Pacers, the anticipated trading of veteran players never happened, and they played hard throughout the season. I underestimated the coaching talent of Rick Carlisle and his ability to maneuver around several poor teams in the conference.
As for the overall placement, I had the top three teams correct in Milwaukee, Boston, and Philly and correctly predicted every team that earned a playoff spot. The Knicks surprised me, finishing in fifth place in the conference rather than simply making a play-in spot. Brooklyn finished slightly ahead of where I predicted but they were indeed not the 50-win team that the oddsmakers expected them to be.
I expected Milwaukee to represent the Eastern Conference in the finals but probably overestimated the team’s roster depth. As it turns out, the Bucks had too many of the same type of player and lacked athleticism off the bench. The Celtics reached the ECF as I predicted although I underestimated the difficulty they would have with coaching in the playoffs. And, of course, I was not prepared for the Heat to come alive in the playoffs and reach the Finals with a disjointed roster that came together under head coach Eric Spoelstra.
Western Conference
W L Win Total O/U Outcome
1. Phoenix 59 - 23 52.5 (OVER) 45-37 (UNDER)
2. Golden St. 55 - 27 51.5 (OVER) 44-38 (UNDER)
3. Dallas 52 - 30 48.5 (OVER) 38-44 (UNDER)
4. Denver 52 - 30 49.5 (OVER) 53-29 (OVER)
5. Memphis 50 - 32 48.5 (OVER) 51-31 (OVER)
6. Minnesota 48 - 34 48.5 (UNDER) 42-40 (UNDER)
7. LA Clippers 45 - 37 52.5 (UNDER) 44-38 (UNDER)
8. New Orleans 42 - 40 44.5 (UNDER) 42-40 (UNDER)
9. LA Lakers 41 - 41 45.5 (UNDER) 43-39 (UNDER)
10. Portland 37 - 45 39.5 (UNDER) 33-49 (UNDER)
11. Sacramento 33 - 49 33.5 (UNDER) 48-34 (OVER)
12. Houston 32 - 50 27.5 (OVER) 22-60 (UNDER)
13. San Antonio 27 - 55 22.5 (UNDER) 22-60 (UNDER)
14. Utah 24 - 58 24.5 (UNDER) 37-45 (OVER)
15. Ok.City 20 - 62 23.5 (UNDER) 40-42 (OVER)
*2022-23 Win Totals courtesy of Draftkings.com
The Western Conference was a bit more of a challenge. I hit on 8 of my 15 over/under plays and correctly predicted 8 of the 10 playoff teams. I missed badly on Sacramento both in the over/under and their stellar playoff appearance. I also didn’t expect the Thunder to rise so quickly this season, far surpassing their over/under total prediction of just 23.5 wins.
The top teams disappointed this year with the Warriors sleepwalking through the regular season and the Suns making major changes to their roster and suffering through countless injuries. Dallas did not make the jump I expected, missing the playoffs entirely, and now looking at potential major upheaval this offseason. Denver finished with a win total that was just one above my prediction and then took off in the playoffs.
As for the playoffs, I did expect a new king of the Western Conference this year but went with Dallas over Denver. I didn’t expect the Warriors to be able to replicate last year’s run with an aging roster and the Suns seemed like pretenders. Dallas was my undoing as I overestimated the team’s ability to gel around Doncic even without Brunson.
Playoff Predictions:
Eastern Conference Finals:
Milwaukee (+350) over Boston (+285) in seven games.
Western Conference Finals:
Dallas (+900) over Denver (+850) in six games.
NBA Finals
Milwaukee (+800) over Dallas (+2000) in six games.
Now let’s take a look at the way, way, WAY too early odds to win the Conference title and NBA title in 2023-24:
Eastern Conference: EC Title NBA Title
Boston +230 +550
Milwaukee +270 +700
Philadelphia +600+1300
Miami +600 +1400
Cleveland +950 +2800
New York +1700 +5000
Atlanta +1800 +6000
Toronto +3500 +9000
Brooklyn +3500 +9000
Chicago +6500 +15,000
Orlando +10,000 +30,000
Indiana +13,000 +50,000
Washington +25,000 +60,000
Detroit +25,000 +60,000
Charlotte +30,000 +60,000
Western Conference WC Title NBA Title
Denver +250 +475
Phoenix +350 +650
Golden State +650 +1300
LA Lakers +750 +1200
LA Clippers +1100 +1800
Dallas +1100 +2000
Memphis +1300 +2500
New Orleans +2000 +4000
Sacramento +2500 +5500
Minnesota +3500 +7500
OKC +5000 +10,000
Portland +6500 +12,000
San Antonio +10,000 +20,000
Utah +13,000 +30,000
Houston +15,000 +30,000
Early thoughts on the current odds: the Lakers are still vastly overrated and the Kings are vastly underrated in the Western Conference. While in the East, Milwaukee looks to be a bit high after they were easily handled by Miami in the first round, and with Middleton having more surgery on his knee this offseason and the Miami Heat’s number is likely very volatile given the rumors swirling about a possible deal for Dame Lillard. The eventual win totals should be interesting when they are released this fall. Without knowing what the offseason holds yet, I expect the likes of Orlando, Houston, and Detroit to be improved while I expect a dropback from Memphis, Portland, the Knicks, and Milwaukee this season.
As always, we will be right on top of all the offseason moves, new faces in new places, and the status of this year’s draft picks when we give our over/under and playoff predictions for the 2023-24 season as well as our weekly NBA rankings and MVP rankings.
*Conference winner and NBA Finals odds courtesy of draftkings.com
