Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/9/21
It’s a Western Conference matchup on the WNBA hardwood in the Valley of the Sun. The Seattle Storm are on the road as they make the trip to face the Phoenix Mercury Friday night. Seattle earned a 71-62 home win over Los Angeles Wednesday night to sweep a home-and-home series. Phoenix outgunned Las Vegas 99-90 in overtime on the road Wednesday night in their most recent game. The Storm took both meetings last season in the bubble, winning 74-68 as the “home” team on August 8, 2020 and following up with an 83-60 win as the “road” team on September 11, 2020. That gave Seattle seven wins in the last 10 meetings between the teams.
Seattle Storm Trying to Hold On to Top Spot in WNBA Standings
Seattle swept a home-and-home series with Los Angeles by prevailing at home Wednesday night. The Storm improved to 15-4 on the season and hold a one-game lead over Las Vegas for the top spot in the WNBA playoff picture. Seattle led by one midway through the opening quarter before going on an 18-4 run that spanned the first and second quarters to take a 26-11 lead. The Storm led by as many as 17 in the first half and by nine at intermission. Seattle saw their lead trimmed to one with 2:04 to play before closing the game on a 10-2 run to put things out of reach. The Storm shot 37.7% from the field, including five of 20 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 37-28 in the game. Breanna Stewart led the Storm with 27 points and 11 rebounds in the win.
The Storm comes into this contest second in the league in scoring offense with an average of 87.2 points per game. Seattle is fourth in rebounding (36.6 boards per contest) and is first in the league in assists by dishing out 22.1 dimes per night this year. The Storm are 4th in scoring defense as they allow 79.7 points a game so far this year. Breanna Stewart leads the team with 21.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. Jewell Loyd (18.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists) and Sue Bird (10.8 points, 5.7 assists) are solid secondary options. Coach Noelle Quinn has a solid group to work with as her team can get production from Katie Lou Samuelson, Jordin Canada, Candice Dupree, Ezi Magbegor, Stephanie Talbot, Kennedy Burke, Epiphanny Prince and Kiana Williams. The Storm are second in the league in field goal percentage as they convert 46% of their shots from the floor this year. Seattle is third in the league in three-point field goals made per game (9.1) and first in three-point percentage as they knock down 40% percent from beyond the arc. The Storm are average at the line, ranking fourth in the league by converting 82.9% of their chances. Mikiah Herbert Harrington is out for the year as she is pregnant. Loyd missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and is questionable here.
Phoenix Mercury Looking to Earn Second Straight Upset
Phoenix had lost two straight and six of their previous eight games before going on the road and upending a hot Las Vegas team Wednesday night. The Mercury entered Thursday 8-9 on the season and held the seventh seed in the WNBA playoff picture, one game ahead of ninth-place Washington to remain on the right side of the cut line. Against Las Vegas, Phoenix led by four after the opening quarter and by seven at the half. The Mercury led by 11 with 6:22 to play in the third quarter before getting outscored 18-2 the rest of the stanza to trail by five after three quarters. Phoenix rallied to force overtime before opening the extra session with a 9-0 run to take control of the game. The Mercury shot 43.2% from the field, including 10 of 27 from three-point range, and hit 25 of 29 free throw attempts in the game. Brittney Griner led Phoenix with 33 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three blocks in the win.
The Mercury are 9th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 79.8 points per game. Phoenix is sixth in rebounding (35.8 rebounds) per contest and stand eighth in the league by handing out 18.3 assists a night. The Mercury are sixth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 81.8 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is second on the Mercury in scoring with 18.8 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.1 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.6 points, four assists) and Brianna Turner (7.4 points, 8.8 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (8.8 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Alanna Smith are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is ninth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.6% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 10th in three-pointers per game (6.7 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (31%) this season. Phoenix is 9th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 79.4% of their chances on the year. Taurasi (hip) missed Wednesday’s game and is questionable here.
Pick: Seattle Storm
Phoenix has won three straight games coming into this one and picked up a big win over Las Vegas on the road Wednesday night. The Mercury may have outgunned the Aces without Taurasi but facing the defending champs presents a different set of problems for Phoenix to deal with here. If Taurasi can’t go, it puts a ton of pressure on Cunningham to step up and deal with the savvy playmaker Bird for the Storm. Trying to contend with Stewart and Loyd has proven to be a challenge for opposing teams this season. Seattle has the experience factor and the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter. That’s enough to tip the scales toward the Storm here.
Total: Under
Sure, some of the greatest players in league history are on the floor in this one with Diggins-Smith, Griner, Bird, Stewart and Taurasi, should she suit up. The thing is, Phoenix’s offensive output has been subpar this season as they are ninth in the league in that department. They may have put up 99 points in the win over the Aces but that’s the kind of style Las Vegas likes to play. Seattle puts up points but they have seen the under hit in 10 of their 19 games this season. Phoenix has seen the under hit in eight games, the over hit in eight and one push. In the series between the teams, the under has hit in each of the last five meetings and the under is 7-1-1 in the last nine matchups. Look for this one to fall short of the mark.
