UFC 251 Early Prelims Odds, Prediction and Preview
UFC 251 early prelim action brings opening hype to the company’s largest COVID-19 era production. Four matchups and eight fighters vye for larger bounties when meeting Saturday from Abu Dhabi.
Heavyweights Marcin Tybura (-115) and Octagon newcomer Maxim Grishin (-105) close the warm up show. At 36, journeyman Grishin has 39 pro starts to his name with 13 consecutive light heavyweight matchups. The former Akhmat Fight Club 205 pound champion has remained unbeaten through a nine-fight span, but had two draws during that run. Grishin’s latest bout versus UFC vet Jordan Johnson ended without a winner. However, the 36-year-old owns 2019 victory over Johnson and brings a 4-0-2 PFL mark into his long-awaited UFC debut.
Meanwhile, formerly ranked Marcin Tybura avoided termination by upending prospect Sergey Spivak by unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN + 27. The lumbering Pole dropped four of five before outhustling Spivak. Three of “Tybur’s” recent losses come via TKO. After humbling name fighters Andrei Arlovski and Stefan Struve, Tybura proved too green for top-tier 265 pounders Derrick Lewis and Fabricio Werdum. At 5-5 opposite UFC competition, Saturday is again make-or-break for Tybura.
The Outcome
Light heavyweights generally function below top capacity at heavyweight. The class jump generally pits the smaller framed man against an opponent carrying greater power, sturdier levers and the crucial ability to absorb strikes. In combat sports an old line states a great little man beats an adequate big man. Yet, this fight sees an average big man scrapping with a perhaps below-average little man.
With that stated, expect Tybura to impose his mass upon Grishin for 15 minutes while collecting unspectacular victory. The natural heavyweight will be too much for “Maximus” at range, in the clinch and on the mat.
Marcin Tybura wins via decision
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+145) vs. Raulian Paiva (-165)
Fight two places 125 pounders Raulian Paiva (#14) and fresh Octagon entrant Zhalgas Zhumagulov in direct combat.
New to the UFC, but not to hardcore MMA fans, 31-year-old Zhumagulov rides an impressive four-fight win streak. The Kazakh recently defeated former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov by split decision -this followed a showcase five round victory against current Octagon employee Tyson Nam.
Hardened by stringent environmental and training conditions, Zhumagulov owns credible boxing and explosive wrestling. The rounded nature of Zhako’s game makes him an excellent underdog pick Saturday: sporting higher profile wins than his opponent only adds value.
Faded a bit here, Raulian Paiva recently earned his first UFC win by decimating Mark De La Rosa via TKO. That victory felt great after Paiva’s narrow UFC debut loss vs. Kai Kara-France. Lengthier than Saturday’s opponent, Paiva throws volume while landing 4.49 strikes per minute. Not noted for finishes, the Brazilian adds decent ground game and pushes pace.
The Outcome
However, Pavia’s major weakness is defense. Absorbing 7.82 strikes per minute, the DWCS standout drops his right hand after flurries and is frequently countered. Zhumagulov’s educated punches will land this weekend. Also, in what should become tight scorecard quarters, the Khazak appears physically stronger than Paiva and can gain needed takedowns when each man tires.
Given his physical tools, resume and background, again, Zhalgas Zhumagulov is a steal here.
Zhumagulov by decision
Vanessa Melo (+245) vs. Karol Rosa (-205)
Fight three brings 135 lb women’s action as favored Karol Rosa faces durable, hard-luck UFC vet Vanessa Melo.
After losing consecutive Zuffa offerings vs. Tracy Cortez and Irene Aldana, Melo is against the proverbial wall this Saturday. The 32-year-old has landed 108 strikes in her previous defeats while absorbing 234.
Younger and more explosive Rosa looks to chase initial Octagon success over then undefeated Lara Procopio by halting Melo’s UFC tenure. What’s more, Rosa hit Procopio with 174 strikes to earn her rep as a volume artist.
The Outcome
With disparate standup abilities, expect Rosa to dominate Melo in the significant strikes landed department at Fight Island.
Karol Rosa by Decision
Davey Grant (+145) vs. Martin Day (-165)
After a 20 month layoff, Martin Day resumes Octagon activity against Davey Grant.
Day narrowly dropped his 2018 bout vs. Pingyuan Liu. The favored Liu caught the freewheeling kickboxer late with a game changing overhand in a split decision fight which saw the best and worst of “Spartan.”
Meanwhile, Davey Grant used wrestling and pace last November to outclass Grigorri Popov. Grant’s deeper MMA toolbox made for an easy win opposite decidedly one-dimensional Muay Thai specialist Popov. Overall, after appearing in the TUF 18 Finals Grant is 2-2 inside the Octagon with each loss via submission.
The Outcome
Ring rust plays into the decision to take Grant Saturday over Day. Though Day is larger and has shown excellent takedown defense, Grant’s relentless pressure and varied strikes will rule the UFC 251 Early Prelim opening encounter.
Expect Davey Grant to outwrestle sluggish Day while landing first at center Octagon. There’s no method to replicate UFC fight experience, and the 20 month absence will undoubtedly affect Martin Day.
Grant wins by decision
Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.Com
