UFC 264: Main Card Betting Guide & Predictions - 7/10/21

Main Card

My picks are in bold. All odds are mean odds taken from www.bestfightodds.com

Dustin Poirier (Opened at +120, currently at -130) vs.
Conor McGregor (Opened at -140, currently at +106)

Alright, as you can see I am taking Poirier here but lets go over this one and provide a bit of a breakdown in case you are on the fence. First off, my personal opinion based on research and history is Conor is definitely going to make adjustments and be better this time around. Those calf kicks that played a factor first time out - he will definitely have an answer for it. Love him or hate him, he is truly professional in his analysis of his performance after a win or loss so adjustments will be made 100%. He is also a sensational striker and has shown he is formidable in the clinch as well (which he used to help defeat Cerrone as well as win round 1 against Poirier last time out). Out of the cage, he’s up to his old mind games and has a bit of a mean streak about him again. All of this bodes well for the Conor side.

Poirier on the other side has just been laying waste to everyone in the lightweight division that isn’t named Khabib. He seems to have fantastic durability, cardio, and power of his own. Conor hit him with some huge shots last time out and Poirier had no issue with it. And that’s the reason my pick is going to fall on his side really because I expect him to be able to weather the early storm of McGregor. He’s shown to be a beast in late rounds where Conor does his best work early. He also has grapple credentials that could throw a wrench into things if he chooses to go that route, further sapping Conor’s cardio.

From a betting standpoint I already scooped up Poirier when it opened so I’m fine with that and I do believe he has value at the current line but I wouldn’t go much further than that. A better option might be to wait for the live betting as you better believe there will be lots of money coming in on this card and the main event line is going to move.

Gilbert Burns (Opened at -155, currently at +131) vs.
Stephen Thompson (Opened at +135, currently at -159)

Going to take Thompson to get the W over Burns here. I don’t think Burns has been relying on his grappling as much as he should lately and he’s been paying for it. Combine that with the fact that Thompsons awkward karate style and footwork is good enough to give anyone fits, I don’t see Burns being able to figure it out. If you got this one when it opened, great work, you’re a sharp and enjoy your money!

Tai Tuivasa (Opened at -170, currently at -137) vs.
Greg Hardy (Opened at +145, currently at +111)

I think the line moved in a good direction for us on this. Tuivasa has improved quite a bit recently and Greg Hardy’s cardio is still consistently dreadful. I fully expect Hardy to unload the tank in the first round and Tuivasa seems savvy enough to be able to weather this. And there’s a good chance that Tuivasa holds his own early on as well. Hardy has some serious power and a 5” reach so I wouldn’t go too crazy on it but I’m going to side with Tuivasa to make it 3 in a row.

Irene Aldana (Opened at -125, currently at -122) vs.
Yana Kunitskaya (Opened at +105, currently at +101)

Don’t get your hopes up on that underdog pick. This fight should be dreadful. Both girls have horrible striking offense, horrible striking defense, and an array of other bad technical abilities. I can’t even believe they put Yana on the main card of a Conor PPV. Her best course of victory is to hold Aldana against the cage and beat her in the clinch and let me tell you, it doesn’t matter how many people boo her, she will do it. Going to pick her but obviously avoid betting it.

Sean O'Malley (Opened at -500, currently at -853) vs.
Kris Moutinho (Opened at +375, currently at +549)

I really wanted to find an angle here cause 90% implied probability is ridiculous in MMA but Moutinho’s style is tailored towards giving O’Malley a win. Which is exactly what the UFC wants. If you bet Moutinho then you’re hoping for a DQ or a trademark knee injury from O’Malley. Stay away from this.

Moneyline & Parlay

Poirier
Topuria & Tuivasa (Topuria is on the undercard which can be found here)