UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane - Undercard Predictions Pt. 1 - 01/22/22

Women's Flyweight - Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

I really like Kay Hansen and overall, she’s a better fighter than Jasudavicius. The issue I have here is Hansen going up to make her flyweight debut (in the UFC) to take on a very big flyweight. If it stays on the feet, Hansen would most likely get the win, even at a 5” reach and height disadvantage just because of the fact she’s slicker and Jasudavicius’s striking defense is non-existent.

Jasudavicius will be intent on grappling and I’m not sure if Hansen will be able to scramble out of things if she gets stuck on bottom. Hansen does have a flyweight loss on her record to Erin Blanchfield which is aging extremely well as that fight went to majority decision. I think based on that I’ll side with Hansen to overcome the size disadvantage and hopefully have a solid game plan for dealing with it. We are going to know pretty quickly if that is not the case however.

Prediction: Kay Hansen

Lightweight - Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez

Frevola is a bit of an enigma. He seems to be ultra tough and durable most times but can also get flatlined in the first minute of fights. His takedown defense is pretty poor but his scrambling ability is quite good as he can get things back to the feet more times than not. He throws a lot of kicks from way outside of range that have little hope of connecting but at the same time the hooks he wings from his hips sometimes do land. Despite a lot of wasted movement and grinding wrestling matches, his gas tank is pretty phenomenal. And that’s what I see being the factor in this fight.

Valdez, as evidence on his contender series fight, will certainly stick to Frevola and try and grind him out. He will probably get Frevola down and fail to keep him down a pile of times early. After that, I think Frevola will slowly start to take over. His offensive wrestling is good enough to exploit Valdez’s weak defensive wrestling as well. It’s just unclear whether he will go that route as he clearly likes just throwing down. But, this will be an early fight so there won’t be a big crowd to get fired up so hopefully he just does the smart thing and doesn’t get sucked into a brawl when Valdez is fresh. I like him to take over late if he doesn't get ded in the first minute.

Prediction Matt Frevola

Women's Strawweight - Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Both girls coming off of UFC debut defeats and both are equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses. Juarez’s striking and reach advantage should be strong enough to edge her opponent out. Conversely, Demopoulos’ aggression, grappling and durability should be strong enough to capitalize on Juarez’s tendency to back up against the cage and look for counters.

I say “should be” because we’ve seen both fighters hold those advantages in past fights and not really capitalize with any sort of consistency you can bank on. Notably, Demopoulos’ willingness to stay on her back could be concerning. But I do like her wild brawling nature which should at least control the center and overcome the reach disadvantage to get inside. Of course she’s going to eat a lot of punches doing so but it’s unlikely she will get finished. I’ll side with Demopoulos on this one but I definitely don’t feel good about it.

Prediction: Demopoulos