UFC 271: Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson - Prediction - 02/12/22
Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson
Derek Brunson (23-7) has been fighting in the UFC since 2012. The long time middleweight wrestler has had some mixed results in the UFC, which can happen when falling in love with scoring KO victories. The North Carolina native has had plenty of success securing them though, racking up 7 UFC KO/TKOs. But staying on the feet too long has also led to him suffering 5 KO defeats of his own. The good news for Brunson however is he’s been really relying on his wrestling roots to dominate fights as of late, and in doing so has scored a TKO over divisional prospect, Edmen Shahbazyan, and a submission over Darren Till in his last fight. He is currently on a 5 fight win streak.
Jared Cannonier (14-5) actually started out his UFC career at heavyweight. However, it was a rough start as he was knocked out by Shawn Jordan in his debut. He managed to write the ship during his next heavyweight fight by serving up the same KO justice to Cyril Asker. After this, we would slowly see a leaner and leaner Cannonier as he went through a light heavyweight stint, all the way down to today’s middleweight “Killa Gorilla”. The light heavyweight stint in question saw him go 2-3, but losing to notable tough combatants in Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz, and Dominick Reyes. Cannonier would then win 4 of his next 5 at middleweight, his only loss to Saturday’s headliner and former champ, Robert Whittaker.
Brunson will stand 2 inches taller than Cannonier but reach will be identical.
How They Match Up
This one is easy to figure out how each guy will fight, but still difficult to call the winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if Derek Brunson comes out in a wrestling singlet for this one, let’s put it that way. As mentioned, he’s been using it to great success and I imagine he’s going to get this fight to the mat more times than not.
After watching Cannonier’s last few fights, there’s no question that he has solid takedown defense and I’m sure his massive middleweight frame helps him here. Jack Hermansson is not a big middleweight and that was the last time Cannonier fought someone intent on taking him down the entire time. And Hermansson did have some success early but lacked the size and strength to hold Cannonier down. His attempts on the single-leg were also well telegraphed which allowed Cannonier to land a beautiful counter uppercut.
Brunson very much has the size, strength, and wrestling pedigree to control Cannonier. He also seems really content with the gameplans his team is laying out. If he deviates or attempts to trade with Cannonier, there’s a good chance he gets put out, but ultimately I like Brunson to grind Cannonier down on route to decision. We should get our answer if Cannonier is able to stuff the takedowns pretty early but even if Brunson is not entirely successful here, I foresee lots of stall time against the cage while he works for it.
