UFC 271: Tai Tuivasa vs Derrick Lewis - Prediction - 02/12/22
Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa
Derrick Lewis (26-8) makes the UFC walk for the 26th time. During that stretch, “The Black Beast” has knocked out 13 UFC competitors! Lewis has fought for the belt twice throughout his career, coming up unsuccessful both times (submission loss to Daniel Cormier in 2018, and a TKO defeat for the interim title against Cyril Gane in August). Although the latter half of those matches was a b.s interim belt when the UFC was jerking Ngannou around. But nevertheless, it was a five rounder which Lewis has claimed to not be a fan of. The Louisiana native IS a fan of three round fights where he doesn’t need to moderate his output as much. This was put on full display when he blitzed Chris Daukaus to death in the first round near Christmas. Only 6 of Lewis’ 34 (35 if you count the no contest) pro fights have found the judges.
Tai Tuivasa (14-3) is on a 4 fight win streak in which he has finished all of those opponents by strikes (Stefan Struve, Harry Hansucker, Greg Hardy, and most recently Augusto Sakai in December). This was a welcomed change from his 3 fights before the streak began which saw “Bam Bam” drop 3 fights, getting finished in 2 of them against Junior dos Santos (TKO), Blagoy Ivanov (Decision), and Sergei Spivak (Submission). It’s his most recent streak which has showcased not only deadly power, but a fan-favorite personality, which often leads to large crowds in the arena pouring beer into their shoes and drinking it. Will Tuivasa get to indulge in another legendary shoey this weekend or will “The Black Beast” put an end to the Australians finishing ways? Let’s see how they match up.
Oh, and Lewis will stand 1 inch taller and hold a 4 inch reach advantage over his southpaw counterpart.
How They Match Up
There’s not really too many elements to break down in Derrick Lewis’ game. He is a massive heavyweight with ridiculous power who’s both deadly on the counter and on the blitz. Fighter’s who get him to the mat rarely submit him or keep him down for too long. Not that grappling is going to be factored into this one. It also never fails to impress me when he throws up those huge head kicks, although they rarely land, the athleticism is impressive. We’ve also seen Lewis get stuck staring for huge stretches of fights with minimal activity. It’s been a very long time since he’s fought a legit southpaw in a pure striking battle so there’s some unknowns here on how this will go.
Tuivasa is another huge heavyweight with big power. He’s a bit more active with his footwork which gives him the ability to get inside on the last couple of opponents who have had reach advantages. He’s also utilized leg kicks to great effect in past fights as well.
Man, the big question here is what Lewis is going to show up. If he blitzes in a frenzy like he did against Daukaus then Tuivasa is going to oblige. Then it’s anyone’s guess but I like Lewis’ chances if that occurs. This exact scenario happened in Tuivasa’s fight with Greg Hardy - a frenzied flurry from both fighters early and the fight was over. Although Tuivasa got the KO, he himself got rocked and was on skates when he delivered the kill shot. What’s interesting is even though both fighters have been finished by strikes, they haven’t really been knocked out completely. Matt Mittrione on Lewis might be the closest to this it was scored as KO but Lewis was back on his feet seconds after the finish (Mittrione is a southpaw).
I’ve gone back and forth on this one a couple times but I gotta pick someone so here it goes. When answering “the big question” I posed above, I am going to side with the more tentative counter-punching Lewis showing up vs the “empty the tank inside the couple minutes” Lewis. I’ll admit my reasoning on this is razer thin but like I said, this is a tough one and if two 265 pound men with a combined 85% knock out rate on their wins decide to trade bombs, flip a coin. So that razor thin reasoning I think Lewis might go back to his complacent style lies in the Ngannou and JDS fights. Two fighters who were intimidating AF with one-shot power produced the complacent Lewis. Tuivasa fits that bill nicely. Combined with the fact we’ve only really seen Lewis blitz a guy that early once so his tendency is to go the counter route. So if he decides to sit back and look for the fight ending counter, I think Tuivasa will be savvy enough to avoid it. There is the added wrinkle that if they do clinch up, Lewis could outgrapple him. There really is a lot going in Lewis' favour for this one and I'd say he's the rightful favorite. But this one could see a very lengthy feeling out process. Again, not super confident in which scenario will pan out but I’ll very slightly lean towards “Bam Bam”.
