UFC 272: Betting Guide - 3/5/22

Last Card Recap

Picks were solid for that card, going 9-2. A bit disappointed I switched to Cirkunov when having originally selected Turman but can’t be too upset; the fight was a mess as expected. Betting wise our main bet was a no sweat underdog win in the form of Terrance McKinney strangling Firas Ziam quite quickly. On the parlay front we had Nunes perform as our anchor exactly as expected with Hernandez squeaking out a split decision victory to cash that ticket.

Our one setback was Kim, who we had half a unit on moneyline and by decision. Fight went to decision as predicted with both girls' durability fully showcased but it didn’t go our way. Where I could definitely see evidence for the Hernandez fight and the Petrosyan fight to be scored for the other guy, this one really felt like a 29-28 win for Kim. It was one of those fights that was close but still easy to score winners for the rounds individually with Kim taking rounds 2 and 3 IMO. The entire MMA community scored it in favour of Kim as well. Check the media scores here. Cachoeira looked like she got beaten with a bat and ate every shot with her face willingly as predicted. Can’t be too upset I guess since the Hernandez fight was scored for us. Solid 2.5 Unit gain on the card so let’s keep the momentum going into UFC 272. Let’s see what the bookies are giving us.

Odds for the Card

We have a very interesting spread there. Some crazy huge favorites and some questionable lines for sure.

Kevin Holland ITD (1.93/-108)

What I like about this line is the great jump from ML to ITD we are getting. On the ML we see Holland as a pretty massive favorite in the 1.236 to 1.300 (-425 to -333) range but to score a finish we get it around the 1.833 to 1.930 (-120 to -108) range depending on the book. Working in our favor is the fact Oliveira has been finished a number of times and Holland has a solid killer instinct if he gets a guy hurt. Admittedly, most of Oliveira’s defeats where he’s been finished have been by submission but I’ve seen him rocked and wobbled enough times that a club and sub or outright KO is highly possible.

There’s a bit of an unknown with which Oliveira will show up however but I’m fine with his wild inconsistency working in our favor here as even if the Oliveira of old shows up, his fight IQ has been showcased as horrendous many times.

Marina Rodriguez by Decision (1.98/-102)

Another prop that gets a massive lift on the line for what I see is the most likely route to victory. The risk here as with any kickboxer match that resembles light sparring is the judges have a tough time scoring it. But I do feel Rodriguez has a solid enough edge in the stand up that she’s going to outpoint her handedly. Yan’s aggression is of course a concern but I think it’s that toughness that will ensure this reaches the final bell.

Dustin Jacoby vs Michał Oleksiejczuk Over 2.5 (1.961/-104)

I really like Jacoby’s edge in the stand up realm to counter the overly aggressive Oleksiejczuk for the bulk of this fight. But I also see this being a very competitive fight with both fighter’s durability helping us reach the over at a nice price. There probably isn’t going to be a lot of grappling and that has been the route to finishing both fighter’s in the past so I think we will be treated to an entertaining stand up battle. The pure volume of strikes thrown by light heavyweights is the main source of concern with this play but I see value on this line.

Bryce Mitchell/Colby Covington Parlay (2.120/+112)

Masvidal getting caught so clean early into his last fight is pretty alarming as his stand up has always been his bread and butter. There’s a chance it was just an off night but if his reflexes are on the decline then his main route to victory is severely compromised. Covington’s stand up also has looked sharper lately and we know he’s going to have significant advantages in wrestling and gas tank. I just don’t see much working in Masvidal’s favor other than a flash KO.

On the flipside of this parlay is Bryce Mitchell getting his stiffest test to date in Barboza. Barboza is no slouch in the takedown defense department but we’ve also seen in the past when an opponent is just persistent in pursuing it then he eventually gives it up. Mitchell has that persistence for sure. I do worry that Mitchell may get complacent with his striking and Barboza will punish him badly if he gets too cute in there. Ultimately, I like Mitchell to get this fight to the mat eventually and showcase some more elite ground fighting.

Devonte Smith ML (1.684/-146)

This is one part picking Smith and one part fading Klein. On the fading aspect, Klein’s low output and telegraphed power punching should keep Smith’s shaky chin safe for this one. In Smith’s favor is his speed and edge in striking, combined with Klein taking this on short notice. I like Smith’s chances the longer the fight goes as well.

Loose Change

This section is reserved for random betting thoughts on the card, some potential very loose bets, or live betting considerations. Enjoy the fights guys.

• I took long looks at a couple dogs in Tim Elliot and Greg Hardy. On one hand, Elliot has struggled with higher end wrestlers which is why the odds are where they are. But on the other hand, Ulanbekov struggled in previous outings with average wrestlers himself. This one feels a bit coin flippy to me and having James Krause in your corner is always a plus. I can really see this fight being highly competitive. With Hardy, I can kind of see Spivak having some trouble getting in on his hips but all he really has to do is survive that first round before Hardy is gassed. Ultimately it wasn’t the strongest position to put my money on but Hardy ITD at 3.65 (+265) ain’t bad if you want some main card loose action to kick things off.

• Nurmagomedov is the rightful favorite in his fight against Kelleher but I don’t think he should be such a colossal one. There could be some sweaty moments for this supposed “lock” when a veteran like Kelleher starts spamming guillotine attempts.

• I’m probably personally betting Jamie Mullarkey but it’s really on the loose side as Turner has all the tools to ruin his day. Nevertheless, I’m a fan of Mullarkey’s work and I’ll be rooting for him to get the dubb.

• I’m also going to take Jacoby to win but ultimately the risk of Oleksiejczuk’s aggression and volume is a big enough flag that this one is a bit loose. The line is probably pretty accurate imho so not officially tipping it. Love both fighters.

Overview

Kevin Holland ITD - 1.0 U Wager to Win 0.9 U

Marina Rodriguez by Decision - 1.0 U Wager to Win 1.0 U

Dustin Jacoby vs Michał Oleksiejczuk Over 2.5 - 0.5 U Wager to Win 0.5 U

Bryce Mitchell/Colby Covington Parlay - 1.0 U Wager to Win 1.1 U

Devonte Smith ML - 1.0 U Wager to Win 0.7 U

2022 Overview

Bet Record: 14-9

Profit/ROI: +6.0 U/24%

Picks: 49-22 (69.0%)

Prediction Picks for the Card

Colby Covington

Rafael dos Anjos

Bryce Mitchell

Kevin Holland

Greg Hardy

Jamie Mullarkey

Marina Rodriguez

Nicolae Negumereanu

Mariya Agapova

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tagir Ulanbekov

Dustin Jacoby

Devonte Smith