UFC on ESPN+ 59: Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin - Prediction - 2/19/22
Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin
Mario Bautista (8-2) would undergo a UFC baptism by fire as he was matched against Cory Sandhagen in his debut. He wound up getting submitted quite quickly in that fight but would bounce back in his next bout with a unanimous decision victory over Jin Soo Sin in a Fight of the Night affair. We would get to witness Bautistia’s real potential on his next out, as he landed a beautiful flying knee over Miles Johns to score the finish. Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep the momentum going as he was finished by strikes for the first time in his career in his most recent fight against Trevin Jones. He was originally scheduled to face Khalid Taha on this card but when Taha pulled out, Jay Perrin stepped up during fight week.
Jay Perrin (10-4) would ride an 8-3 record from lesser promotions into a Contender Series opportunity in 2019, and although he would lose that fight by decision, the UFC must have kept his number on hand. As mentioned, he jumps into this one on very short notice. Momentum is on the side of “Savage” though, who would win both of his post-Contender Series fights on the regional circuit. He’ll look to make it three in a row and lock up a UFC contract this time around.
Reach will be identical but Bautista will stand 2 inches taller.
How They Match Up
Despite getting finished via strikes in his last fight, there was a lot to like about Bautista’s performance. First off, his takedown defense was incredibly solid, stuffing all of Giles’ attempts. I also thought he was winning the striking battle fairly handedly until he got caught. It sort of looked like it was going to end up similar to his fight with Jin Soo Sin, where high output and superior accuracy would win the decision.
Jay Perrin has shown a solid gas tank and refusal to quit. He wore Deigo Silva as a backpack for the majority of round 1 in his Cage Titans fight but still came out and imposed his own grappling will in the remaining rounds. He also has a chin on him and is willing to take one to give one. Although his technique is a bit sloppy and when he misses he can become way out of position due to the amount he puts into those shots.
I think Perrin might find out there’s levels to this game in this fight. Bautista is going to have him completely outmatched in terms of speed and movement. If Perrin does go the grappling route, Bautista will most likely shut it down as he’s defended against better grapplers in the past.
Being gutsy and fearless while being able to walk through fire is a solid recipe though for a young fighter making their debut. And if Bautista gets lazy with his low kicks, Perrin could see his grappling success go way up. It’s a bit tough to back though. I’m guessing Bautista is going to be pretty focused the entire way after being finished by strikes for the first time in his career. Give me the speed advantage and solid takedown defense to ruin Perrin’s short notice debut.
